A Study on Replenishment Decision of Vegetable Goods Based on Polynomial Regression and Arima Time Series Forecasting

Abstract

In a fresh food superstore, the superstore replenishes daily based on the historical sales and demand of vegetable commodities. To formulate the optimal replenishment decision, this paper analyses the sales flow, purchase cost, and loss of a supermarket in a period, and through the use of a variety of models, it can give a reference opinion on the formulation of automatic pricing and replenishment decisions for vegetable commodities. The first text describes the process of analyzing the relationship between total sales volume and cost-plus pricing, including data integration, preprocessing, and multiple regression analysis methods. Through these analyses, a general relationship between total sales volume and merchandise selling price is identified. Univariate linear regression, polynomial regression, random forest regression, and BP neural network regression models were all used to analyze this relationship. The focus is then on the total daily replenishment and pricing strategy for the coming week to maximize the superstore's revenue. The text details the use of ARIMA time series analysis methods, as well as steps for noise reduction and forecasting using Wavelet wavelet functions. Through these methods, the text provides sales forecast results for different vegetable categories for the coming week for the superstore management's reference.