Research on Sales of New Energy Vehicles Based on ARIMA Model

Abstract

Firstly, this article identifies seven indicators based on electric vehicles: battery endurance, number of public charging facilities, government subsidies, gasoline prices, electricity prices, carbon emissions, and number of power battery companies. Spearman correlation analysis is conducted between indicator data and sales of new energy electric vehicles. The correlation coefficients of the first five indicators are all greater than 0.6, which is the main influencing factor. Then, the sales of new energy vehicles are predicted using a yearly forecasting method. Due to the close correlation between the sales of new energy vehicles and the five main indicators, the ARIMA time series model is first used to predict the annual quantity of the five indicators. Then, using these five indicators as inputs and sales as outputs, a BP neural network model is established to predict the annual sales of new energy vehicles in China to be 46051748 units in ten years. Finally, quantifying the score of ecological environment assessment using four evaluation indicators: sulfur dioxide, smoke emissions, ammonia nitrogen, and carbon dioxide. The entropy weight method was used to determine the weights of each indicator, and the results were 37.25%, 30.96%, 21.24%, and 10.55%, respectively. Then apply it to the TOPSIS model to obtain ecological environment scores for different years, and analyze the correlation between the degree of electrification and ecological environment scores. Finally, it can be concluded that the larger the market share of new energy vehicles, the better the ecological environment.