The impact of the "dual carbon" target on China's coal industry stock prices--Analysis based on the dual event study method

Xinru Feng; Kaili Zhang; Ran Yi

doi:10.54097/096y7m03

Authors

Xinru Feng
Kaili Zhang
Ran Yi

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/096y7m03

Keywords:

Abstract

The proposal and implementation of the "dual carbon" target has a profound impact on the stock price of China's coal industry. 75 coal enterprises are selected as research objects, and based on the daily closing price data of each stock from 2020 to 2023, the coal industry stock index is constructed by using the Rathbair index method. The dual-event research method is used to empirically test the impact of the proposal and implementation of the "dual-carbon" target on the stock price of China's coal industry, and the transmission path and heterogeneity are analyzed. The results show that: (1) the proposal of the "dual carbon" target has no significant impact on the stock price of the coal industry, while the implementation of the "dual carbon" target policy has a significant negative impact on the stock price of the coal industry; (2) The implementation of the "dual carbon" target has a negative impact on both state-owned shares and non-state-owned shares, but state-owned shares are more obvious. (3) The implementation of the "double carbon" target has a greater impact on the GEM and is uncertain, and has a negative impact on the main board and the original small and medium-sized board. (4) The implementation of the "dual carbon" target has a negative impact on stock prices in different regions, and the fluctuation range is ranked as follows: central region > Western region > Eastern region > Northeast region. (5) The implementation of the "double carbon" target has a negative impact on both directly and indirectly participating enterprises, and the negative fluctuation of directly participating enterprises is more severe. Based on this, this paper puts forward suggestions from four aspects: the government, regulators, coal industry enterprises and investors, in order to jointly promote the implementation of the "dual carbon" goal and the transformation and upgrading of the coal industry.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

[1] Xiao Zushin, Peng Hongfeng, Yin Zhichao, et al. Research on Macroeconomic Stabilization and Emission Reduction Measures under the "Dual Carbon" Target[J]. Economic Review, 2023, (05):17-33.

[2] Bian Chen, Chu Zhaopeng, Sun Zhenglin. How to reconcile the "dual carbon" objective with macroeconomic policy objectives? [J]. East China Economic Management,2024,38 (03):58-73.

[3] Zhu Yi. Study on the Evolutionary Characteristics and Realization Path of China's Energy Policy under the "Dual Carbon" Goal [D]. Nanchang University, 2024.

[4] Sun Xiangyu. Impact of energy structure on carbon emission reduction under the dual-carbon target[D]. Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,2023.

[5] Qi Linhai. Exploration on the Path of Accelerating the Development of China's Carbon Financial Market under the Goal of "Double Carbon"[J]. Contemporary Economy,2023,40 (06):82-88.

[6] Xiao Y,Peng ZL,He JD,etal.Science and technology innovation promotes construction of new national energy system (in Chinese) .Bull ChinAcadSci,. 2019,34:385-391.

[7] Cai R,Zhu HX,Li WJ,etal.Development path of energy science and technology under "dual carbon "goals:Perspective of multi-energy system integration (in Chinese). Bull ChinAcadSci,2022,37:502-510.

[8] Li Shuangcheng, Wang Qiaoling, Liu Yinglu. Renewable energy development in China under the "dual carbon" target: opportunities and challenges [J]. Climate and Environment Research,2024,29(03):390-398.

[9] Jin Zhijun,Zhang Chuan.2024.On China's energy transition pathway towards carbon neutrality [J].Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Acta Scientiarum Naturalium Universitatis Pekinensis(in Chinese),accepted.

[10] Liu Jia, Zheng Keling, Yan Bing. Opportunities and Challenges of Economic Development in Northeast China under the Background of "Dual Carbon" Strategy[J]. Journal of Economic Research,2023, (02):26-28.

[11] Zhang Jianping." Carbon Finance" and Opportunities for Economic Transformation and Development in Northeast China[J]. Contemporary Financier, 2021, (12):37-38.

[12] Deng Shicheng,Wu Yuming. Impacts of low-carbon city pilot policies on the development of green transformation in Chinese resource-based cities[J/OL]. China Population-Resources and Environment,2024, (06):65-79[2024-10-05].

[13] Luo Xing,Liu Zijun,Tian Yun. The impact and role path of digital economy on low-carbon transformation of resource cities[J/OL]. China Population-Resources and Environment,2024, (06):56-64 [2024-10-05].

[14] He Yao. Research on the impact of financial factors on China's coal price [D]. Chongqing University of Commerce and Industry,2018.

[15] SD Bekiros,CGHDiks.The relationship between crude oils pot and futures prices:Co integration, linear and nonlinear causality [J].Energy Economics,2007 (5):2673-2685.

[16] R Demirer,AM Kutan.The behavior of crude oils pot and futures prices around OPEC and SPR announcements:An event study perspective [J].Energy Economics,2010(6):1467-1476.

[17] Yuan Guiqiu,Zhang Lingdan. Analysis of Influencing Factors of Coal Price in China[J]. Price Journal,2009(02):45-47.

[18] Cui Wei,Wen Xiaolong. Analysis on the influencing factors and fluctuation law of coal price[J]. Coal Economy Research,2011,31(03):90-92.

[19] WANG Di,ZHANG Yanfang,YIN Qin,NIE Rui. Research on the causes of coal price volatility and its price discovery ability in China[J]. Resource Science,2013,35(08):1643-1650.

[20] Lei Qiang. Research on the relationship between coal production and consumption and economic growth in China[J]. Resources and Industry,2014,16(01):138-143.

[21] Duan Yun. Strategies for improving the management level of coal enterprises under the new economic environment[J]. China Market, 2024, (24):82-85.

[22] Lina Yuan. Transformation and innovation of financial management of coal enterprises under the background of big data[J]. China Township Enterprise Accounting,2024, (08):163-165.

[23] Lili Xu. Research on Debt Financing Risks and Countermeasures of Coal Enterprises [D]. China University of Mining and Technology (Beijing),2011.

[24] You Xiang. Research on financial risk control mechanism of coal enterprises under the background of double carbon[J]. Inner Mongolia Coal Economy,2024, (15):75-77.

[25] Zhang Yu,Wang Shijin. An Empirical Study on Corporate Environmental Responsibility and Financial Performance--Taking Coal Listed Enterprises as an Example[J]. Logistics Engineering and Management,2021,43(01):176-181.

[26] Wu Qiang. Research on the synergistic impact of corporate environmental responsibility, green technology innovation on financial performance [D]. East China Jiaotong University,2018.

[27] Moody. Research on the impact of green credit policy on the stock price volatility of green enterprises[D]. Shanghai: Shanghai University of Finance and Economics,2023(in Chinese).

[28] NING Jinhui,SHI Fang. Green credit policy and dynamic adjustment of capital structure[J]. Finance and Accounting Monthly,2021, (21):44-53.)

[29] Zhu Minglai,Jin Jianchong. Impact of state-organised drug collection on share prices of pharmaceutical listed companies [J]. China Medical Insurance,2024, (08):5-19.

[30] Lulu Wang,Qin Yang. A study on the performance of ChatGPT global release event on China fund market - based on event study method[J]. Enterprise Economy,2024,43 (07):151-160.