The Research of the Birth Rate in Canada from 1951 to 2022


  • Zhiyu Chen
  • Lin Meng
  • Siran Luo



Birth rate; Causing factors; ARIMA time series.


Although previous studies have shown that Canada's birth rate is in constant decline, many factors are worth investigating. In this study, the ARIMA time series model approach was used to process data from the United Nations World Population Prospects, a system that collects Canadian birth rates from 1995 to 2022. Finally, when the residual model has a sequence relationship, the ARCH/GARCH model is considered for further study, and the conclusion is that the birth rate is still declining due to many factors such as the epidemic situation and living habits, and the birth rate growth is still negative in the next 20 years. However, with more data, Canada's population is still the fastest-growing country among many developed countries. According to the literature analysis, the factors contributing to the low birth rate include the COVID-19 pandemic, women's thoughtfulness and social status, and the improvement of quality of life.


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How to Cite

Chen, Z., Meng, L., & Luo, S. (2024). The Research of the Birth Rate in Canada from 1951 to 2022. Highlights in Science, Engineering and Technology, 88, 1024-1031.