Mathematical Modeling of Scoring Rates in Tennis Matches


  • Yawen Li



Tennis; mathematical modeling; scoring rates; performance analysis; sports analytics.


This paper delves into the profound implications of scoring rates in tennis matches through the application of mathematical modeling. By gathering data from diverse sources, it thoroughly scrutinizes the intricate interplay between scoring rates, including first-serve percentage, second-serve percentage, and double faults, and their effects on match outcomes. The study uncovers striking performance differentials among top-tier players. Notably, the analysis reveals that first-serve percentage exhibits a relatively weak correlation with overall match performance. Conversely, the percentage of first-serve points won significantly and positively influences match outcomes, highlighting its pivotal role. Conversely, higher percentages of second-serve points won and an increased incidence of double faults are associated with decreased success rates in matches. Through the utilization of a multiple linear regression model, this research can elucidate 46% of the variance in match outcomes, underscoring the model's substantive value. The implications of this study extend far and wide within the tennis community, enriching our comprehension of the intricate dynamics of player performance, strategic decision-making, and the practical applications of sports science. The integration of mathematical modeling into tennis promises to be a transformative force, with the potential to reshape the way to understand and practice the sport at all levels, paving the way for future research and advancements in the field.


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How to Cite

Li, Y. (2024). Mathematical Modeling of Scoring Rates in Tennis Matches. Highlights in Science, Engineering and Technology, 88, 1144-1150.