Research on the Prediction of the Global Price of WTI Crude

Abstract

As the cornerstone of industrial development, crude oil prices have attracted international attention. However, due to the frequency of price fluctuations and the sensitivity to the international economic situation, crude oil prices are difficult to predict. Due to significant differences in prices before and after 2007, this will increase the difficulty of prediction and decrease its accuracy. The ARIMA model, as a typical prediction model, is highly favored by scholars from various countries due to its accuracy and adaptability. This article will use the ARIMA model to forecast the one-year future prices. The conclusion is as follows: in the two months, the prices will have a slight upward trend, while in the next year, the overall trend will show a relatively obvious downward trend. Therefore, this article believes that it is not recommended to invest in crude oil in the short term. At the same time, this article believes that ensuring domestic economic stability can reduce the impact of international economic shocks and thus gain an advantageous position in international trade.