Prediction of High-speed Traffic Flow in Baoan District in Shenzhen

Yanqing Lu

doi:10.54097/kxzx8d30

Authors

Yanqing Lu

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/kxzx8d30

Keywords:

ARIMA model; highway; traffic flow.

Abstract

Nowadays, with the increasing number of cars, high-speed congestion has become a common phenomenon. This paper studies the traffic flow prediction of an expressway in Shenzhen, aiming to avoid congestion at the expressway during holidays and carry out effective management. The author uses the ARIMA model for research, with data selection of vehicle flow at expressway intersections from December 2002 to June 2023. Firstly, the ADF test is used to check the feasibility of the data. The ACF and PACF are used to determine the values of p and q in the ARIMA model. What is more, the optimal model is selected by comparing the BIC values of the models constructed with different p and q values. Finally, model establishment and analysis are carried out. It is found that in the 14 years after the selected data, the traffic flow is still on the rise, and it is necessary to pay attention to the traffic flow management of this high-speed section.

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