Urban Electric Bus Fleet Transition Research Based on Eco-Impact Valuation Model and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Authors

  • Qijun He

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/qfccjj89

Keywords:

Ecological impact valuation model; Discounted Cash Flow financial analysis (DCF); TOPSIS; Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP).

Abstract

This paper investigates the transition to an all-electric bus fleet as a strategy for sustainable urban development, focusing on its financial and environmental impacts. Utilizing the Eco-impact Valuation Model, Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF), and the E-bus Replacement Model, the study assesses the feasibility and benefits of replacing conventional diesel buses with electric buses. Firstly, the Eco-impact Valuation Model analyzes and translates the environmental costs of diesel and electric buses into monetary social costs, evaluating the potential cost reduction to society offered by electric buses. Secondly, the DCF is used to demonstrate the potential cost-saving superiority of electric buses over diesel buses within a single investment period, providing a financial perspective on the transition. Lastly, the E-bus Replacement Model plans the phased introduction of electric buses and updates bus routes over the next ten years, based on air quality severity in different city zones. The severity of pollution is ranked using the TOPSIS evaluation model, with influencing factors weighted by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The models are applied to three cities, including Houston, Buenos Aires, and Shenzhen, offering insights into the ecological, financial, and practical feasibility of electric buses for policymakers.

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References

Al-Harbi, Kamal M. Al-Subhi. "Application of the AHP in project management." International journal of project management 19.1 (2001): 19-27.

Behzadian M, Otaghsara S K, Yazdani M, et al. A state-of the-art survey of TOPSIS applications[J]. Expert Systems with applications, 2012, 39(17): 13051-13069.

Shrieves R E, Wachowicz Jr J M. Free cash flow (FCF), economic value added (EVA), and net present value (NPV): A reconciliation of variations of discounted-cash-flow (CDF) valuation[J]. The engineering economist, 2001, 46(1): 33.

Nternational Energy Agency. “IEA - the Global Energy Authority.” Iea.org, 2022, www.iea.org/.

Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality.School Bus, Shuttle Bus, Transit Bus.” Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, 2023, www.tceq.texas.gov/agency/trust/index/buses. Accessed 14 Nov. 2023.

Texas Commissions on Environmental Quality. “Air Grants: Funding for Vehicles, Equipment,and Fuel Infrastructure.” Texas Commission on Environmental Quality, 2023, www.tceq.texas.gov/airquality/air-emissions/air-grants. Accessed 14 Nov. 2023.

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Published

20-01-2024

Issue

Section

Articles

How to Cite

Urban Electric Bus Fleet Transition Research Based on Eco-Impact Valuation Model and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis. (2024). Academic Journal of Science and Technology, 9(1), 127-133. https://doi.org/10.54097/qfccjj89

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