Urban Electric Bus Fleet Transition Research Based on Eco-Impact Valuation Model and Discounted Cash Flow Analysis

Abstract

This paper investigates the transition to an all-electric bus fleet as a strategy for sustainable urban development, focusing on its financial and environmental impacts. Utilizing the Eco-impact Valuation Model, Discounted Cash Flow Analysis (DCF), and the E-bus Replacement Model, the study assesses the feasibility and benefits of replacing conventional diesel buses with electric buses. Firstly, the Eco-impact Valuation Model analyzes and translates the environmental costs of diesel and electric buses into monetary social costs, evaluating the potential cost reduction to society offered by electric buses. Secondly, the DCF is used to demonstrate the potential cost-saving superiority of electric buses over diesel buses within a single investment period, providing a financial perspective on the transition. Lastly, the E-bus Replacement Model plans the phased introduction of electric buses and updates bus routes over the next ten years, based on air quality severity in different city zones. The severity of pollution is ranked using the TOPSIS evaluation model, with influencing factors weighted by the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP). The models are applied to three cities, including Houston, Buenos Aires, and Shenzhen, offering insights into the ecological, financial, and practical feasibility of electric buses for policymakers.