A new IPCA-CPSO-BP Model for Predicting Gas Emission in Underground Coal Mines

Abstract

 Gas has become the primary factor restricting the safe and efficient production of coal mines. Gas emission prediction model is very important for mine gas emission prediction and gas disaster prevention. The improved principal component analysis (IPCA) was used to reduce the dimension of 13 influencing factors of gas emission, and the CPSO-BP neural network prediction model was built with MATLAB software to predict the absolute gas emission of Zhongtai Mining.The results show that the cumulative contribution rate of principal components is not less than 95%, and the number of principal components after improvement is reduced from the original 6 to 3, which effectively solves the problem of excessive principal components and data redundancy caused by the correlation difference between various influencing factors and gas emission amount. At the same time, the optimized particle swarm optimization algorithm alleviates the trouble that the particle swarm optimization algorithm is prone to fall into the local optimal solution. By coupling the improved particle swarm optimization algorithm with BP neural network, the problem of BP neural network's over-dependence on the initial value of weights and thresholds is solved, and the optimal initial weights and thresholds are provided for BP neural network, improving the accuracy of model prediction results. The average relative error of the original BP neural network is 1.6638%, the normalized mean square error is 0.3155, and the regression correlation index is 0.8157. The IPCA-CPSO-BP prediction model decreased to 0.5749%, 0.1143 and 0.9758, respectively. IPCA improves the data dimensionality reduction ability of principal component analysis, IPCA-CPSO-BP enhances the stability of particle swarm optimization algorithm, and significantly improves the prediction accuracy of BP model. The prediction trend is highly consistent with the actual value, which verifies the reliability of the model and provides strong data support for mine gas prevention and control.