The Application of Time Series Models in the Prediction of Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease Incidence
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/jq7es934Keywords:
Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease, LSTM, Transformer, InformerAbstract
Hand-Foot-Mouth Disease (HFMD) is a contagious illness predominantly affecting infants and children under five years old, caused by human enteroviruses. Over the past five decades, HFMD has rapidly spread across the Asia-Pacific region, gradually evolving into a significant public health challenge for many countries within this area. Currently, HFMD has emerged as an increasingly severe public health issue in our country. Therefore, analyzing the influencing factors of HFMD and predicting its incidence trends are of paramount importance for the prevention of the disease. With the rapid advancement of artificial intelligence technology, predictive models employing deep learning techniques have demonstrated superior performance among various infectious disease prediction models. This paper aims to construct a predictive model using deep learning methods to further enhance the accuracy of HFMD incidence predictions. We compared the effectiveness of Long Short-Term Memory (LSTM) networks, Transformer, and Informer models in HFMD prediction. The research findings indicate that the Informer model, by utilizing self-attention mechanisms and convolutional neural networks, can more effectively address long-term dependencies in time series data, thereby showing better performance in HFMD prediction compared to the LSTM and Transformer models. This has led to improvements in prediction accuracy and generalization capability.
Downloads
References
G. O. Young, “Synthetic structure of industrial plastics (Book style with paper title and editor),” in Plastics, 2nd ed. vol. 3, J. Peters, Ed. New York: McGraw-Hill, 1964, pp. 15–64.
W.-K. Chen, Linear Networks and Systems (Book style). Belmont, CA: Wadsworth, 1993, pp. 123–135.
H. Poor, An Introduction to Signal Detection and Estimation. New York: Springer-Verlag, 1985, ch. 4.
B. Smith, “An approach to graphs of linear forms (Unpublished work style),” unpublished.
E. H. Miller, “A note on reflector arrays (Periodical style-Accepted for publication),” IEEE Trans. Antennas Propagat., to be published.
J. Wang, “Fundamentals of erbium-doped fiber amplifiers arrays (Periodical style—Submitted for publication),” IEEE J. Quantum Electron., submitted for publication.
C. J. Kaufman, Rocky Mountain Research Lab., Boulder, CO, private communication, May 1995.
Y. Yorozu, M. Hirano, K. Oka, and Y. Tagawa, “Electron spectroscopy studies on magneto-optical media and plastic substrate interfaces (Translation Journals style),” IEEE Transl. J. Magn. Jpn., vol. 2, Aug. 1987, pp. 740–741 [Dig. 9th Annu. Conf. Magnetics Japan, 1982, p. 301].
M. Young, The Techincal Writers Handbook. Mill Valley, CA: University Science, 1989.
J. U. Duncombe, “Infrared navigation—Part I: An assessment of feasibility (Periodical style),” IEEE Trans. Electron Devices, vol. ED-11, pp. 34–39, Jan. 1959.
S. Chen, B. Mulgrew, and P. M. Grant, “A clustering technique for digital communications channel equalization using radial basis function networks,” IEEE Trans. Neural Networks, vol. 4, pp. 570–578, Jul. 1993.
R. W. Lucky, “Automatic equalization for digital communication,” Bell Syst. Tech. J., vol. 44, no. 4, pp. 547–588, Apr. 1965.
S. P. Bingulac, “On the compatibility of adaptive controllers (Published Conference Proceedings style),” in Proc. 4th Annu. Allerton Conf. Circuits and Systems Theory, New York, 1994, pp. 8–16.
G. R. Faulhaber, “Design of service systems with priority reservation,” in Conf. Rec. 1995 IEEE Int. Conf. Communications, pp. 3–8.
W. D. Doyle, “Magnetization reversal in films with biaxial anisotropy,” in 1987 Proc. INTERMAG Conf., pp. 2.2-1–2.2-6.
G. W. Juette and L. E. Zeffanella, “Radio noise currents n short sections on bundle conductors (Presented Conference Paper style),” presented at the IEEE Summer power Meeting, Dallas, TX, Jun. 22–27, 1990, Paper 90 SM 690-0 PWRS.
J. G. Kreifeldt, “An analysis of surface-detected EMG as an amplitude-modulated noise,” presented at the 1989 Int. Conf. Medicine and Biological Engineering, Chicago, IL.
J. Williams, “Narrow-band analyzer (Thesis or Dissertation style),” Ph.D. dissertation, Dept. Elect. Eng., Harvard Univ., Cambridge, MA, 1993.
N. Kawasaki, “Parametric study of thermal and chemical nonequilibrium nozzle flow,” M.S. thesis, Dept. Electron. Eng., Osaka Univ., Osaka, Japan, 1993.
J. P. Wilkinson, “Nonlinear resonant circuit devices (Patent style),” U.S. Patent 3 624 12, July 16, 1990.
IEEE Criteria for Class IE Electric Systems (Standards style), IEEE Standard 308, 1969.
Letter Symbols for Quantities, ANSI Standard Y10.5-1968.
R. E. Haskell and C. T. Case, “Transient signal propagation in lossless isotropic plasmas (Report style),” USAF Cambridge Res. Lab., Cambridge, MA Rep. ARCRL-66-234 (II), 1994, vol. 2.
E. E. Reber, R. L. Michell, and C. J. Carter, “Oxygen absorption in the Earth’s atmosphere,” Aerospace Corp., Los Angeles, CA, Tech. Rep. TR-0200 (420-46)-3, Nov. 1988.
R. J. Vidmar. (1992, August). On the use of atmospheric plasmas as electromagnetic reflectors. IEEE Trans. Plasma Sci. [Online]. 21(3). pp. 876–880. Available: http://www. halcyon. com/pub/journals/21ps03-vidmar.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.