Research on the Evaluation Index System of Fertility ‐ friendly Society

: The friendly childbearing environment is one of the important factors for young people to choose childbearing. It is of great significance to carry out the evaluation and research of childbearing friendly society to optimize the fertility policy and promote the long-term balanced development of population. Based on relevant policy documents and academic research results, the evaluation system of childbearing friendly society is constructed. The evaluation content is divided into 4 first-level indicators, 9 second-level indicators and 35 third-level indicators. The first level indicators are: policies and regulations, social economy, cultural concepts, environmental factors, from four levels to build a fertility-friendly society evaluation system, to provide practical and reliable reference basis


Introduction
In recent years, under the background of the low fertility rate, the trend of "aging, fewer children, and no marriage" has accelerated. With the improvement of rural urbanization level, the popularization of higher education and many other factors, people's fertility concept has undergone fundamental changes, high fertility cost, high investment in child rearing and education, and discrimination against women in the workplace have become factors inhibiting reproductive behavior. "Birth-friendly" came into being. The basic meaning of childbearing friendly is that on the basis of respecting the freedom of childbearing and affirming the diversity of childbearing, people of childbearing age should be guided by humanistic and institutional forces to make childbearing choices and realize the optimal path of childbearing with Chinese characteristics for harmonious development of family and society. On the one hand, the diversity of reproductive intention and the autonomy of reproductive decision-making of reproductive subjects are fully respected; On the other hand, we will establish a systematic policy system for supporting fertility, improve the implementation of various fertility supporting systems and public services, and adapt to new changes in population development to promote high-quality population development.

Research and Design of Evaluation Index
System of Childbearing Friendly Society

Delphi Method Builds Evaluation Index System
Delphi method, also known as expert survey method, which originated in the 1940s, is a non-face-to-face form of expert opinion collection method, through group exchange and communication to solve complex problems. Experience at home and abroad shows that Delphi method can make full use of the knowledge, experience and wisdom of human experts, and is an effective means to solve unstructured problems. In order to build a fertility friendly social environment evaluation index system, the project adopted Delphi method, which lasted 25 days.
First, the research objectives and scope are defined to determine the type and quantity of indicators that need to be evaluated. Then we determined the expert group. We consulted a total of 10 experts from the academic community, the government and 5 grassroots rural cadres respectively, invited them to jointly put forward suggestions on the construction of the country's first childbearing friendly social environment evaluation index system established by this project, and determined the corresponding index weights. The following is a detailed list of experts: After the expert group was determined, the project carried out questionnaire design with the goal of studying the childbearing friendly social environment, listed all possible evaluation indicators, and provided some possible evaluation criteria or evaluation levels under each indicator. For example, the three three-level indicators of "economic cost", "economic income" and "industrial support" under the "social economy" index will be divided into low, medium and high three levels, and let experts give corresponding evaluation standards.
The project will send the questionnaire to the expert group, and ask them to evaluate and modify each evaluation indicator and evaluation standard according to their own experience and knowledge. After collecting the feedback of the experts and sorting out and analyzing the data, the project will modify the evaluation indicator and standard according to the feedback results of the experts, and send the questionnaire again to the expert group for secondary evaluation. Accordingly, we collected and analyzed the second round of feedback data, and modified the evaluation indicators and standards according to the second revision, and then issued the third round of questionnaires, collected the questionnaires again, analyzed and counted the feedback data. After the three rounds of data feedback and modification, our team sorted out and mutually evaluated the overall indicator system, and decided to issue the fourth round of questionnaires. Accordingly, we analyzed the feedback data of the fourth round of the expert group and modified the evaluation indicators and standards. In the process of the implementation of the Delphi Method, we have conducted four rounds of questionnaire issuance, data feedback and index modification. The index is iterated constantly, and the evaluation system is gradually improved to improve the accuracy and reliability of the evaluation results. Then, according to the final feedback and statistical analysis results, we compile the result report of evaluation indicators and evaluation criteria. The team will timely report the results of evaluation indicators and evaluation criteria to the expert group and relevant personnel, and make corresponding improvements and adjustments according to their feedback and suggestions, and finally get a feasible, scientific and reasonable evaluation index system for rural youth. (As shown in Table 2.)

The Establishment Principle of AHP Analytic
Hierarchy Process As a comprehensive evaluation method combining qualitative and quantitative analysis, AHP has been widely used in many fields to develop related index systems. Based on the analytic hierarchy Process (AHP), this project will decompose complex problems, and make use of its characteristics of providing scientific basis for the selection of the best plan, and apply it to the establishment of a childbearing friendly social environment evaluation index system to help confirm the system level and assign detailed indicators.
The establishment of this evaluation index system is based on the principle of hierarchy structure, consistency, comparison, positive reciprocal matrix and weight distribution in AHP. Among them, the principle of hierarchy means that the index system should be adjusted according to the actual situation of the fertility dilemma of the current childbearing age group in China. The fertility friendly social environment measurement index proposed in this project is divided into four levels: the first level is the target level; The second level is the criterion level; The third level is indicative level; The fourth level is the quantitative indicator level. The consistency principle means that the comparison matrix of each level in the index should meet the consistency principle, that is, the comparison between all levels should be consistent and there should be no contradiction. The comparison principle refers to the comparison matrix of each level in the index system, each index should be pairwise compared to determine their relative importance. Positive reciprocal matrix principle: For each level of comparison matrix in the index system, it should be positive reciprocal matrix, that is, they should be symmetric, the diagonal element is 1, and the product of other elements is equal to 1; Weight allocation principle: According to the relative importance of each indicator in the indicator, they are assigned weights in order to comprehensively evaluate the contribution value of each indicator, so as to make decisions.

The Theoretical Framework of Fertility Friendly Social Index System
Considering the research theme of this project, the differences in the completeness and availability of statistical data, the speed and quality of information transmission, and regional culture among different regions, as well as the large differences in the level of social environment in different regions, the different perception of policy support and life pressure among childbearing age groups, etc., the intention to have children has been declining. Therefore, the establishment of this index system takes the new generation of rural youth as the main measurement object, and will be carried out from four aspects: policies and regulations, social economy, cultural concepts and environmental factors.

Primary Evaluation Index of Childbearing
Friendly Social Environment In terms of policies and regulations, it focuses on the perception degree of the new generation of rural young people on the fertility policy and education policy. The following indicators are: the fertility preferential benefits given to the new generation of rural young people by the policy and the construction of basic education facilities such as educational resources and education subsidies. In terms of social economy, this paper focuses on the perception degree of the new generation of rural young people on economic aspects and local industrial support, and sets three three-level indicators, namely economic cost, economic income and industrial support. In terms of cultural concepts, it focuses on the new generation of rural youth and their family members' concepts of raising, children, marriage, family, etc. There are two threelevel indicators: fertility concept and personal concept. In terms of environmental factors, this paper focuses on the perception degree of the new generation of rural young people on rural infrastructure construction and reproductive safety. The following two three-level indicators are social support and reproductive safety.
In the study of group evaluation, the weight adjustment of evaluators as a decisive factor of the quality of evaluation results has been relatively mature research results. Generally speaking, empowerment methods are divided into three main empowerment methods: subjective empowerment, objective empowerment, and the combination of subjective and objective empowerment. However, we adopted the subjective and objective method of empowerment (Ma Hui, 2009;Fan Zhiping et al., 1997;Xu Yejun, 2005) combined the advantages of subjective empowerment and objective empowerment: in the first stage, the characteristics of evaluation individuals were defined and grouped, and the subgroups and subjective weights were combined subjectively and objectively by Delphi method; in the second stage, individuals in the group were objectively empowered according to the value of their evaluation information and AHP was applied. Through this method, various information is fully considered and the accuracy of evaluation results is improved.

Secondary and Tertiary Evaluation Indicators of
Childbearing Friendly Social Environment 1. The impact of policies and regulations on fertility Starting from the influencing factors of policies and regulations on fertility, the secondary indicators measured mainly include fertility policy and education policy in terms of the policy impact related to fertility.
In the birth policy, mainly from the birth subsidies, marriage subsidies, maternity insurance and preferential policies to consider four aspects. Indicators monitor the implementation of maternity subsidies, marriage and childbearing subsidies and maternity insurance by grass-roots governments, and reduce and reduce through relevant preferential policies, which is conducive to improving the perception of rural pregnant families on fertility policies, alleviating the economic pressure of pregnant families' work stoppage due to pregnancy and pregnancy expenses, and improving their fertility intention.
In terms of education policy, teaching quality, educational resources, educational equity and educational equity are the main indicators. Children's education has become a major concern of families of childbearing age. This index system investigates the education situation of local villages, which is conducive to the subsequent improvement and optimization of local education. Paying attention to the balance and equity of educational resources can relieve the pressure of rural child-rearing families and contribute to the improvement of the birth of the new generation of rural young people.
2.Influence of social and economic factors on fertility At the social and economic level, there are three secondary indicators: economic cost, economic income and industrial support.
In terms of economic cost, it is divided into education and training, pension costs and employment impact three parts as the main index basis. While bearing the children's education expenses, child-rearing families may consider the future pension expenses in advance, and how to maintain the basic living conditions of the family under the circumstances of "the elderly have the upper and the lower"; Working hours are more or less affected by pregnant families, especially when women stop working near the birth and are in the recovery period after childbirth. Women are at a significant disadvantage in working hours, which may have an impact on job promotion and even the job itself.
In terms of economic income, based on employment opportunities and family income in rural areas, the current situation of employment opportunities and employment situation are investigated to find out whether there are enough employment opportunities for the new generation of rural youth in villages. This paper investigates the satisfaction degree of family income of the new generation of rural youth, analyzes and puts forward the optimization path, so as to improve the fertility of the new generation of rural youth. In terms of industrial support, the index system aims to pay attention to the development scale of local industries, study their employment-driven effect in the local, and whether they can provide more jobs for the local people, so that local youth can "stay and eat". At the same time, it analyzes the local industry and the local income structure, explores the development trend of the local economy, promotes the optimization of the local economic structure, and lays a good foundation for promoting the high-quality development of the rural economy.
3.The influence of cultural concepts on fertility In terms of cultural concepts, fertility concepts and personal concepts are selected as secondary indexes.
The fertility concept under the cultural concept refers to the influence of traditional fertility culture on the current fertility concept. This paper explores the fertility concept of rural youth in the new era from the perspective of pension concept, parenting concept and children concept.
4.The influence of environmental factors on fertility At the level of environmental factors, social support and reproductive safety were selected as secondary indicators.
In terms of social support, it includes the measurement of the perception of social insurance, medical conditions, medical security, sanitation conditions, etc., as well as the implementation of related village infrastructure such as maternal and child health facilities.
Childbearing safety includes fear of childbearing, postpartum recovery and body shape change. Starting from the physical feeling, the psychological perception is explored to understand the degree of influence of related factors on fertility.

Key Behavioral Manifestations of Childbearing
Friendly Social Environment The establishment of fertility friendly social environment evaluation index system and its evaluation results provide reference opinions for the improvement and implementation of subsequent fertility support policy system. Based on the quantitative results of the index system, the government and relevant departments can score the fertility intention in their respective fields, take targeted fertility support measures to optimize the fertility environment, and finally create a social atmosphere friendly to marriage and childbearing, reduce the social anxiety about fertility and parenting, and realize the increase of fertility rate and promote the balanced development of population.

1.Construct judgment matrix
This project constructs a judgment matrix and combines several experts to judge the relative importance of n indicators at the same level. According to the conclusion of "the ultimate ability of people to distinguish information levels is 7±2" obtained by psychological research, the relative importance of indicators can be evaluated by using the analytic hierarchy process (AHP), which can be scaled in ninth place, as shown in Table 4.
The relative importance of each factor at each level is evaluated in numerical form and written in matrix form (as shown in Table 5). The matrix bij represents the relative importance of Bi and Bj relative to Ak.  2.Calculation of feature vectors and weight calculation This project uses the four secondary indicators of "policies and regulations", "social economy", "cultural concepts" and "environmental factors" within the index to calculate the weight for example.
First calculate the judgment matrix normalized matrix R, that is, divide each element by the sum of its rows to obtain a 4×4 matrix (As shown in Table 6). Table 6. Second-level indicator judgment matrix Using the above judgment matrix, the weight vector for each criterion can be calculated by adding each row of the judgment matrix and dividing it by the row sum. After the above operation, a vector containing four values will be obtained, and each value represents the eigenvector of the corresponding indicator. The eigenvector of each indicator is divided by the sum of all the eigenvectors of its corresponding level to obtain its weight value. as shown in Table 7. Table 7. Feature vectors and weights of secondary indicators 3.Consistency check When using AHP, it is also necessary to check the consistency of the judgment matrix to ensure that the weight vector is reliable and consistent. The Consistency index (CI) is a measure used to evaluate the consistency of a judgment matrix, and its value ranges between 0 and 1. The closer the CI is to 0, the more consistent the judgment matrix is, and the closer the CI is to 1, the more inconsistent the judgment matrix is.
The consistency index CI is calculated to represent the consistency degree of the judgment matrix. Its calculation formula is as follows: CI=(λmax-n)/(n-1) Where λmax is the maximum eigenvalue of the judgment matrix, and n is the order of the judgment matrix (i.e., the size of the matrix).
For this example, n=4, we can calculate λmax using the following formula: The calculation gives λmax=4.081 and therefore CI=0.027. In order to measure whether the judgment matrix of different order has satisfactory consistency, it is necessary to introduce the random consistency index RI value of the judgment matrix.
Then it is necessary to calculate the consistency ratio CR, the formula is: CR=CI/RI, the value of RI can be found in Table 8. Concerns about postpartum health Fear of the pain caused by childbirth Postpartum muscles loose, out of shape This research example constructs a 4-order judgment matrix, corresponding to the above table, which can obtain a random consistency RI value of 0.890, and the RI value is used in the following consistency test calculation.
When the order is greater than 2 and the consistency ratio of the judgment matrix CR=CI/RI<0.10, it is considered that the judgment matrix has satisfactory consistency; otherwise, it is necessary to adjust the judgment matrix to make it have satisfactory consistency. So, we calculate that the judgment matrix passes consistently. (As shown in Table 9.) Through the combination of Delphi expert method and AHP analytic hierarchy process, the fertility friendly social environment evaluation index system is finally formed (see Table 10).The establishment of a childbearing friendly society evaluation index system enables the overall situation of the social environment to be displayed more completely through corresponding comprehensive evaluation indicators, and the rational use of Delphi method and AHP can enhance the feasibility, scientificity and rationality of indicators. In the process of application and implementation, the index evaluation system can be monitored, tested, improved and optimized for possible problems, so that the measurement indicators of childbearing friendly social environment can be more accurate, and it is worth promoting and applying in every region of China.

Future Outlook and Message
This study innovatively focuses on the perspective of rural 1-3 child birth support system, takes the dilemma of fertility, parenting and education as the starting point, deeply studies the current fertility support system and explores it through rigorous theoretical research and standardized case analysis. Through the field investigation experience of 2,800 people interviewed in 101 villages, the study conducted case analysis and countermeasure research. Based on the "Delphi expert method" and "AHP analytic hierarchy process", the feasibility, scientificity and rationality of the indicators were enhanced, and finally the fertility friendly social environment evaluation index system was built. The evaluation index system can show the whole situation of the social environment through the corresponding comprehensive evaluation index, and provide a practical and reliable reference for building a childbearing friendly society. However, it should be pointed out that the evaluation index system is still in the exploratory stage and is not mature enough. With the progress of technology and the deepening of research, the index system will be constantly revised and adjusted to make it more scientific, perfect and feasible.