How can Transportation Sector Achieve High-quality Carbon Peaking in China? -- Based on International Comparison

Yitong Zhou

doi:10.54097/ktfw2a64

Authors

Yitong Zhou

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/ktfw2a64

Keywords:

China, Transportation Sector, Carbon Peak, High Quality, International Experience

Abstract

Promoting the peak of carbon emissions in the transportation sector as soon as possible is the key to advancing carbon peaking process in China. This article combines the KAYA model, peak quality standards based on Tapio decoupling model, and international experience to predict the future trend of carbon emissions of transportation sector, and to analyze the path for the transportation sector to achieve high-quality peak in China. Research has found that: (1) Based on China's goals (by 2030, the proportion of oil and gas will decrease to 75%), it has been found that China's transportation sector may achieve carbon peak by 2032, with lower peak quality than developed countries such as Japan. (2) Based on international experience, stable GDP growth and technological progress are key to ensuring the quality of carbon peak in the transportation sector. (3) On the basis of reducing the share of oil and gas to 75% by 2030, if China further decreases the energy intensity of its transportation sector by 27% compared to 2018 levels (a 7% greater decrease than the target scenario), it is projected that China's transportation sector may achieve a high-quality carbon peak by 2030 and potentially match the peak quality level of France. This paper can provide theoretical support for promoting carbon emissions reduction and facilitating the peak in China's transportation sector.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

[1] Chen X, Shuai C, Wu Y and Zhang Y. Analysis on the carbon emission peaks of China's industrial, building, transport, and agricultural sectors. Sci Total Environ 2020; 709:135768. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.scitotenv.2019.135768.

[2] Zhao G, Yu B, An R, Wu Y and Zhao Z. Energy system transformations and carbon emission mitigation for China to achieve global 2◦C climate target. J Environ Manage 2021; 292:112721. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jenvman.2021.112721.

[3] The Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. Carry forward the past and forge ahead into the future and start a new journey in the global response to climate change - Speech at the climate ambition Summit. http://www. gov.cn/ gongbao/content/2020/content_5570055.htm; 2021 [accessed 21 August 2021].

[4] Jiang J, Ye B and Liu J. Peak of CO2 emissions in various sectors and provinces of China: Recent progress and avenues for further research. Renew Sust Energ Rev 2019; 112:813–833. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.rser.2019.06.024.

[5] Blas Id, Mediavilla M, Capellán-Pérez I and Duce C. The limits of transport decarbonization under the current growth paradigm. Energy Strateg Rev 2020; 32:100543. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j. esr.2020.100543.

[6] International Energy Agency. https://www.iea.org/data-and-statistics/data-browser?country= CHINAREG&fuel =CO2% 20 emissions&indicator=TotCO2; 2021 [accessed 21 August 2021].

[7] World Bank. https://data.worldbank.org.cn/; 2021 [accessed 21 August 2021].

[8] Liu J, Sun Y, Wang K, Zou J and Kong Y. Research on medium and long-term low-carbon development path of China's transportation sector. Res Prog Clim Chang 2018; 14(05):513-521. https://doi.org/10.12006/j.issn.1673-1719. 2018. 052.

[9] Wang H, Ou X and Zhang X. Mode, technology, energy consumption, and resulting CO2 emissions in China's transport sector up to 2050. Energy Policy 2017; 109:719–733. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.enpol.2017.07.010.

[10] Yang L, Wang Y, Lian Y and Han S. Factors and scenario analysis of transport carbon dioxide emissions in rapidly-developing cities. Transport Res Part D-Transport Environ 2020; 80:102252. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2020.102252.

[11] Zhang X, Chen Y, Jiang P, Liu L, Xu X and Xu Y. Sectoral peak CO2 emission measurements and a long-term alternative CO2 mitigation roadmap: A case study of Yunnan, China. J Clean Prod 2020:119171. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. jclepro. 2019. 119171.

[12] Zhang G and Su Z. Decomposition of influencing factors and scenario prediction of transportation carbon emission in the Yellow River Basin. Manag Rev 2020; 32(12):283-294. https://doi.org/10.14120/j.cnki.cn11-5057/f.2020.12.022.

[13] Lu S, Jiang H, Liu Y and Huang S. Regional disparities and influencing factors of Average CO2 Emissions from transportation industry in Yangtze River Economic Belt. Transport Res Part D-Transport Environ 2017; 57:112–123. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2017.09.005.

[14] Li Y, Du Q, Lu X, Wu J and Han X. Relationship between the development and CO2 emissions of transport sector in China. Transport Res Part D-Transport Environ 2019; 74:1-14. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.trd.2019.07.011.

[15] Song Y, Zhang M and Shan C. Research on the decoupling trend and mitigation potential of CO2 emissions from China's transport sector. Energy 2019; 183:837-843. https://doi.org/ 10. 1016/ j.energy.2019.07.011.

[16] Wang Q and Wang S. A comparison of decomposition the decoupling carbon emissions from economic growth in transport sector of selected provinces in eastern, central and western China. J Clean Prod 2019; 229:570-581. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2019.04.375.

[17] Solaymani S. CO2 emissions patterns in 7 top carbon emitter economies: The case of transport sector. Energy 2019; 168:989-1001. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.11.145.

[18] Wang C, Wood J, Wang Y, Geng X and Long X. CO2 emission in transportation sector across 51 countries along the Belt and Road from 2000 to 2014. J Clean Prod 2020; 266:122000. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.jclepro.2020.122000.

[19] Isik M, Sarica K and Ari I. Driving forces of Turkey's transportation sector CO2 emissions: An LMDI approach. Transp Policy 2020; 97:210–219. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. tranpol. 2020.07.006.

[20] Raza MY and Lin B. Decoupling and mitigation potential analysis of CO2 emissions from Pakistan's transport sector. Sci Total Environ 2020; 730:139000. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j. scitotenv. 2020.139000.

[21] Pita P, Winyuchakrit P and Limmeechokchai B. Analysis of factors affecting energy consumption and CO2 emissions in Thailand's road passenger transport. Heliyon 2020; 6(10):e05112. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.heliyon.2020.e05112.

[22] Wang H and He J. Peaking rule of CO2 emissions, energy consumption and transport volume in transportation sector. China Popul Resour Environ 2018; 28(2):59-65. doi:10.12062/ cpre.20171001.

[23] Wang D, He W and Shi R. How to achieve the dual-control targets of China's CO2 emission reduction in 2030? Future trends and prospective decomposition. J Clean Prod 2019:1251-1263. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j. jclepro. 2018. 12. 178.

[24] Zhou N, Price L, Yande D, Creyts J, Khanna N, Fridley D et al. A roadmap for China to peak carbon dioxide emissions and achieve a 20% share of non-fossil fuels in primary energy by 2030. Appl Energy 2019; 239. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j. apenergy. 2019.01.154.

[25] Liu J, Yin M, Xia-Hou Q, Wang K and Zou J. Comparison of sectoral low-carbon transition pathways in China under the nationally determined contribution and 2 °C targets. Renew Sustain Energy Rev 2021; 149:111336. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/ j.rser.2021.111336.

[26] Ye L, Xie N and Hu A. A novel time-delay multivariate grey model for impact analysis of CO2 emissions from China’s transportation sectors. Appl Math Model 2021; 91:493–507. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apm.2020.09.045.

[27] Liu L, Wang K, Wang S, Zhang R and Tang X. Assessing energy consumption, CO2 and pollutant emissions and health benefits from China's transport sector through 2050. Energy Policy 2018; 116:382–396. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j. enpol. 2018.02.019.

[28] Pan X, Wang H, Wang L and Chen W. Decarbonization of China's transportation sector: In light of national mitigation toward the Paris Agreement goals. Energy 2018; 155:853-864. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.04.144.

[29] Gambhir A, Tse LKC, Tong D and Martinez-Botas R. Reducing China’s road transport sector CO2 emissions to 2050: Technologies, costs and decomposition analysis. Appl Energy 2015; 157:905–917. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/ j.apenergy. 2015. 01.018.

[30] Fang K, Tang Y, Zhang Q, Song J, Wen Q, Sun H et al. Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces. Appl Energy 2019; 255:113852. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2019.113852.

[31] Haasz T, Vilchez JJG, Kunze R, Deane P, Fraboulet D, Fahl U et al. Perspectives on decarbonizing the transport sector in the EU-28. Energy Strateg Rev 2018; 20:124-132. https://doi. org/ 10.1016/j.esr.2017.12.007.

[32] Paladugula AL, Kholod N, Chaturvedi V, Ghosh PP, Pal S, Clarke L et al. A multi-model assessment of energy and emissions for India's transportation sector through 2050. Energy Policy 2018; 116:10–18. https://doi.org/10. 1016/j. enpol. 2018.01.037.

[33] Pita P, Chunark P and Limmeechokchai B. CO2 Reduction Perspective in Thailand’s Transport sector towards 2030. Energy Procedia 2017; 138:635-640. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/j. egypro.2017.10.175.

[34] Indra CS, Indarto and Deendarlianto. Quantitative analysis of automobile sector in Indonesian automotive roadmap for achieving national oil and CO2 emission reduction targets by 2030. Energy Policy 2021; 150:112135. https://doi.org/ 10.1016/ j.enpol.2021.112135.

[35] Charabi Y, Nasiri NA, Awadhi TA, Choudri BS and Bimani AA. GHG emissions from the transport sector in Oman: Trends and potential decarbonization pathways. Energy Strateg Rev 2020; 32:100548. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.esr.2020.100548.

[36] Pan X, Elzen Md, Höhne N, Teng F and Wang L. Exploring fair and ambitious mitigation contributions under the Paris Agreement goals. Environ Sci Policy 2017; 74:49–56. http://dx. doi.org/10.1016/j.envsci.2017.04.020.

[37] Fragkos P and Kouvaritakis N. Model-based analysis of Intended Nationally Determined Contributions and 2°C pathways for major economies. Energy 2018; 160:965-978. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.energy.2018.07.030.

[38] Zhang H, Chen W and Huang W. TIMES modelling of transport sector in China and USA: Comparisons from a decarbonization perspective. Appl Energy 2016; 162:1505–1514. http://dx.doi.org/10.1016/j.apenergy.2015.08.124.

[39] China energy statistical yearbook. https://data.cnki.net/ Yearbook/ Single/N2020120303; 2021 [accessed 20 August 2021].

[40] IPCC.Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change. IPCC guidelines for national greenhouse gas inventories. 2006. https://www.ipcc-nggip.iges.or.jp/public/2006gl/index.html.

[41] Zhou S, Tong Q, Pan X, Cao M, Wang H, Gao J et al. Research on low-carbon energy transformation of China necessary to achieve the Paris agreement goals: A global perspective. Energy Econ 2021; 95:105137. https://doi.org/10.1016/j. eneco. 2021.105137.

[42] State Grid Corporation of China. "Promoting sustainable energy change" in the plenary session of the 24th World Energy Conference. http://www.nw.sgcc.com.cn/info/1013/19352.htm; 2021 [accessed 20 August 2021].

[43] Tapio P. Towards a theory of decoupling: degrees of decoupling in the EU and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001. Transp Policy 2005; 12(2):137-151. https://doi.org/10.1016/j.tranpol.2005.01.001.

[44] China Petroleum Economic Technology Research Institute. World and China Energy Outlook 2050 (2020 Edition).

[45] China Logistics Yearbook. https://data.cnki.net/ Yearbook/ Single/ N2019120056; 2021 [accessed 21 August 2021].

[46] National Bureau of Statistics of China. https://data.stats.gov. cn/easyquery.htm?cn=C01; 2021 [accessed 21 August 2021].

[47] The Central People's Government of the People's Republic of China. Notice of the State Council on printing and distributing the national population development plan (2016-2030). http://www.gov.cn/zhengce/content/2017-01/25/ content_ 5163309. htm; 2021 [accessed 21 August 2021].

[48] China Finance 40 Forum. Scientific calculation and setting: economic growth targets for 2035 and the 14th five year plan. http:// www.cf40.org.cn/news_detail/11402.html; 2021 [accessed 21 August 2021].