Research on the effectiveness of second-child subsidy policy in high-cold areas based on multi-level model

Abstract

The number of births in China increased slightly in 2016-2017 after China implemented a two-child policy and provided certain subsidies for second-child births. However, since 2018, the overall number of births in China has begun to decline, reflecting the waning effect of the policy. High and cold regions, especially Heilongjiang Province, have seen their birth rates rise far below the national average despite adopting such policies. The passive response of the two-child subsidy policy in the northeast region in the high-cold environment reveals the underlying economic and social reasons. Then what economic and social factors have an impact on the effectiveness of the two-child subsidy policy in the high-cold region? For this reason, we have launched an in-depth investigation. To further analyze the effectiveness of the two-child subsidy policy, we further designed a more targeted questionnaire. The text selected Harbin City, Beijing City, Qingdao City and Nanning City to study the fertility intention, and carried out in-depth research online and offline. Since the questionnaires collected were targeted at four provinces in China, considering the multi-layer nesting of data, we adopted a multi-level model to analyze the changes of factors affecting the intention of having a second child before and after the introduction of regional variables, and then explored the differences of influencing factors among regions. Through the above research, we found that although the initial fertility policy promoted a certain degree of fertility intention and birth rate, the long-term impact was limited, and the effect of economic subsidies was eroded by high living costs, regional differences, and insufficient publicity and implementation. The increasing pressure on the cost of childbirth, education, medical care and housing further inhibits the willingness to have children. The second-child subsidy policy has significant differences in satisfaction and demand among provinces, and it is difficult to achieve the desired policy effect by relying solely on economic subsidies. It is necessary to consider regional differences and family personality differences to formulate comprehensive policies to encourage childbirth, including the implementation of economic subsidies, social support, career development, education and medical resources, maternity leave support and other comprehensive policies.