Research on the Impact of Rural Energy Transition in China Based on System Dynamics

Abstract

Rural energy is an important component of China's energy system, and promoting the green transformation and development of rural energy plays an important strategic role in improving the national green, low-carbon and circular development economic system and helping to achieve carbon peak and carbon neutrality goals. Considering the complexity and dynamism of rural energy transformation, this article establishes a system dynamics model for rural energy transformation in China, which includes three subsystems: energy, socio-economic, and environmental. The energy subsystem is divided into two sub modules: renewable energy and traditional energy substitution. The changes in the energy, socio-economic, and environmental subsystems under the background of rural energy transformation in China from 2010 to 2030 are simulated, and the development of rural energy and the impact of rural energy transformation are predicted and analyzed. last. Using scenario analysis to test the effectiveness of different rural energy measures. The results show that: (1) The total energy supply in rural areas of China is showing a trend of "first increasing and then decreasing", and the energy structure is undergoing significant changes. Biogas, solar energy, and renewable electricity are gradually replacing traditional energy sources such as coal, straw, and firewood, effectively improving rural energy utilization efficiency; (2) The overall development prospects of solar energy are better than biogas, and it will continue to grow from 2020 to 2030. The development of biogas is facing a transformation scenario. Household biogas is gradually being abandoned by rural residents due to various reasons such as urbanization, intensive agriculture, and raw material shortages. With strong policy support, biogas engineering will develop rapidly. (3) The substitution of renewable energy for traditional energy has outstanding contributions to reducing CO2, SO2, NOx, and PM2.5 emissions, and can improve the ecological environment in rural areas; (4) The development of renewable energy in rural areas can broaden the income channels of rural residents, provide more job opportunities, and at the same time, the development of biogas can provide high-quality organic fertilizers for agriculture, treat agricultural waste, and promote the sustainable development of agriculture in China. These pieces of information are of great significance for China's future low-carbon energy transformation and will provide recommendations for policy-making.