Energy Carbon Emission Measurement and Influencing Factor Analysis - A Case Study of Ningxia Abstract

Abstract

This study takes five prefecture-level cities in Ningxia—Yinchuan, Shizuishan, Wuzhong, Guyuan, and Zhongwei—as research subjects, using the emission factor method to calculate urban carbon emissions from 2011 to 2023. It analyzes the impacts of population size, economic development level, industrial structure, and other factors on carbon emissions, and explores key driving forces by integrating data on green finance, innovation indices, and urbanization. The findings indicate that carbon emissions in Ningxia exhibit significant spatial disparities, with high-emission areas concentrated in northern industrial cities, showing a "high north, low south" distribution pattern. Total carbon emissions have shown an upward trend, while emission intensity has continuously declined, indicating a gradual decoupling between economic growth and carbon emissions. Economic level, industrial structure, and energy consumption are the core drivers, while green finance and technological innovation demonstrate significant emission reduction effects. Urbanization shows an inverted "U"-shaped relationship with carbon emissions. Finally, the study proposes differentiated policy measures, region-specific controls for northern and southern areas, core-led initiatives, and ecological prioritization as pathways for emission reduction, offering strategic recommendations for pollution control and carbon mitigation in Ningxia Hui Autonomous Region to achieve its dual carbon goals.