Partial Disruptions and Recovery Strategies in Vegetable Supply Chains under Heavy Rainfall: The Role of Irrational Purchasing Decisions
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/pnzb8x53Keywords:
Heavy Rainfall, Vegetable Supply Chains, Partial Disruptions, Irrational Purchasing Decisions, System DynamicsAbstract
Heavy rainfall may impair a vegetable supply chain without shutting down the market. This paper studies that partial state and the part played by non-routine purchasing during disruption and recovery. The system dynamics model follows vegetables through farmers, distribution centers, and retailers. Rainfall-related losses in production and transport enter the same structure as deterioration, inventory adjustment, price, and demand. We compare seven scenarios. They cover normal operation, two disruption intensities, and excessive or suppressed purchasing at each intensity. Capacity falls and the supply gap grows as the rainfall shock becomes more severe; operating cost rises and total profit declines. Purchasing behavior does not change realized production capacity in the model. It changes when and how much consumers demand, which then affects prices and the supply-demand balance. Advance purchasing creates a sharp short-run gap. Suppressed purchasing reduces that pressure, although lower sales and narrower margins may reduce profit. The recovery implication depends on the source of the imbalance. Production protection and transport coordination address the physical shock, while inventory rules and consumer communication address the response to it. The model therefore adds a behavioral demand channel to operations-research analysis of climate-related disruption in perishable food systems.
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