Disruption and Recovery Strategies for Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chains under Extreme Heat: A System Dynamics Study
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/zybbav37Keywords:
Fresh Agricultural Product Supply Chains, System Dynamics, Supply Chain Disruption and Recovery, Extreme HeatAbstract
Extreme heat events increasingly threaten fresh agricultural product supply chains (FAPSC), whose vulnerability stems from product perishability, timeliness requirements and heavy cold chain reliance. This paper establishes a logistics provider-only inventory model fitting fresh produce’s low-inventory operation, and builds a system dynamics-based disruption and recovery model for a four-echelon FAPSC. It explores the nonlinear evolution, risk transmission and recovery paths of extreme heat-induced supply chain (SC) disruptions. Results reveal extreme heat’s disruption impact features nonlinear amplification and an obvious threshold effect. Equal downstream disruptions harm overall SC performance more severely than upstream ones. While expedited supply facilitates disruption recovery, it brings rising marginal costs. Logistics inventory buffers supply volatility and eases terminal shortages, yet incurs profit losses from extreme heat damage.
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