A Study on the Relationship Between Regional Population Aging and Health Consumption: An Empirical Analysis Based on Provincial Panel Data
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/3z9fqg14Keywords:
Population Aging, Health Consumption, Provincial Panel Data, Social Security, Silver EconomyAbstract
As population aging continues to deepen in China, its impact on residents’ health consumption has become an important issue in public policy and health economics. Using a balanced panel dataset of 31 provincial-level administrative units in China’s mainland from 2012 to 2021, this study examines the relationship between regional population aging and residents’ health consumption under a two-way fixed-effects framework. All monetary variables are deflated to 2012-constant yuan using province-level CPI indices. The results show that population aging is significantly and positively associated with real per-capita health consumption. After controlling for economic development, urbanization, income, government health expenditure, and medical insurance coverage, a one-percentage-point increase in the share of the population aged 65 and above is associated with an increase of approximately 156.8 yuan in real per-capita health consumption. The result remains robust under alternative demographic measures, alternative dependent variables, and sub-sample estimation. The moderating effects of economic development and insurance coverage are not significant at the provincial level, while regional differences are evident, with the strongest association observed in the central region. These findings suggest that population aging should be incorporated into medium- and long-term health-resource planning, with greater attention given to regions facing faster aging and relatively constrained health-service capacity.
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