Response and Vulnerability Analysis of Carbon Storage to Land Use Change in Henan Province

Abstract

Located in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration, which is one of the most important grain silos in China, the expansion of construction land is closely related to the economic development and arable land protection in the region, which has led to the problems of “man-land conflict” and “conflict between construction land and arable land” and other issues that have attracted a lot of attention. The Central Plains Urban Agglomeration (CPU) is taken as the study area, and the simulation analysis of urban expansion in CPU is carried out by using land use data and Markov-PLUS model based on the analysis of the current situation. During the study period, the growth of urban construction land area in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration has experienced the change process of “rapid growth-steady growth-rapid growth-steady growth”. The main land types are mainly arable land, followed by construction land and forest land, with the remaining land types accounting for only about 4% of the total area of the study area; among the four expansion simulation scenarios, in the arable land protection scenario, the downward trend of the arable land area is effectively reduced, with a decrease of 2,675.4 km² in comparison with the natural development scenario, but this leads to the encroachment of cultivated land into the eco-land, which results in a certain degree of ecological pressure; in the eco-protection scenario, the eco-land is protected, and the ecological land is protected, and the ecological land is protected. Under the ecological protection scenario, the ecological land has been protected to a certain extent, and the grassland and forest land have increased by 8118.4km² and 2071.1km² respectively compared with the natural development scenario, while the area of cultivated land has decreased greatly; under the economic development scenario, the area of construction land has increased greatly, and the area of cultivated land has increased by 5003km² compared with the natural development scenario, and the area of ecological land has also decreased greatly. In the economic development scenario, the construction land area reaches a large increase, with an increase of 5003km² compared with the natural development scenario, a large decrease in cultivated land area, and a decrease in ecological land area. The simulation of construction land expansion in 2035 in the Central Plains Urban Agglomeration under different scenarios shows that the area of arable land will gradually decrease, and the urban construction land should be reasonably and effectively expanded, otherwise it will pose a potential threat to the future security of food production.