Risk Analysis of Elderly Care Investment Based on the Background of Population Aging in China

Abstract

Under the dual background of the continuous economic development and the accelerating aging population in China, the pension security system is facing severe sustainability pressure, and the importance of pension fund investment and operation is also constantly highlighted. This paper will take the aging process of the Chinese population as the macro background and conduct a systematic study on the risk issues in the field of pension investment. Firstly, it will clarify the relevant concepts of population aging and pension investment, and sort out the three types of pension models: defined benefit (DB), defined contribution (DC), and hybrid. On this basis, it will analyze the current situation of the pension investment market in China and the existing problems, such as the low upper limit of individual pension account contributions and product homogeneity. Then, it will analyze the four core risks faced by pension investment - longevity risk, macroeconomic fluctuation risk, inflation risk, and policy adjustment risk - and explore their formation mechanisms. Through typical pension financial product cases, it will specifically verify the impact of the above risks on actual investment operations. Finally, it will propose risk response strategies and development suggestions from the perspectives of individuals, financial institutions, and the state. Beyond clarifying the types of pension investment risks and the direction of response, this study also points out remaining research gaps in areas such as risk quantification and micro-investment behavior. In the future, in-depth discussions can be further carried out on risk modeling, investor behavior analysis, and pension financial product innovation.