First-Week Box Office, Release Schedule Type and Total Movie Box Office: An Empirical Study on Domestic Films Based on Dual-Model Verification

Abstract

With the rapid advancement of digital technology and the dynamic growth of the cultural consumption market, film box office prediction has become an increasingly important research topic in both academic and industrial circles. Accurate box office forecasting not only helps in optimizing marketing strategies and investment decisions but also supports the sustainable development of the entire film industry. Despite recent improvements in prediction models incorporating machine learning and big data analytics, several challenges remain, such as accounting for subjective factors like audience preferences, social media influence, unexpected external events, and the inherent uncertainty of creative products. These limitations hinder further progress in forecasting precision and restrict the practical value of existing models. Therefore, this paper aims to identify and analyze key issues in current box office prediction research, offering theoretical insights and methodological recommendations to enhance the accuracy and applicability of future predictions. The findings are expected to provide valuable guidance for stakeholders in the Chinese film industry and contribute to its healthy and prosperous evolution.