The Impact of Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction on Urban Green Production Efficiency — A Quasi-Natural Experiment Based on Comprehensive Demonstration Cities for Energy Conservation and Emission Reduction Policies

Abstract

To evaluate the impact of energy conservation and emission reduction (ECER) policies on urban green production efficiency, this study uses panel data of 282 prefecture-level cities in China from 2006 to 2020. Treating the designation of “Comprehensive Demonstration Cities for ECER Policies” as a quasi-natural experiment, we employ a difference-in-differences (DID) approach, mediation-effect models, and a spatial Durbin model (SDM) to systematically examine the policy’s effects on urban green total factor productivity (GTFP), its transmission mechanisms, and heterogeneous characteristics. The results show that the designation significantly increases urban GTFP, and the conclusion remains robust after a series of robustness checks. The policy operates mainly through two channels—green technological innovation and energy structure optimization—whereas the mediating effect of industrial structure upgrading is relatively weak. Policy effects exhibit pronounced heterogeneity, being more salient in eastern China, large cities, and cities with higher administrative status. In addition, the policy generates positive spatial spillovers, radiating to surrounding cities and improving their green production efficiency. These findings provide empirical evidence and decision-making references for differentiated ECER policy design and for regional collaborative green development.