PSO-Driven Simulation and Evaluation of Depth-Charge Hit Probability in Anti-Submarine Warfare

Abstract

This study investigates the optimization of anti-submarine aerial depth charge hit probability using Particle Swarm Optimization (PSO). The analysis begins by deriving the geometric relationship between the lethal radius of the depth charge and the submarine’s position to establish a maximum effective kill-area model based on horizontal deployment coordinates. Two detonation modes—fixed-depth fuse and contact fuse—are examined to assess their respective influences on hit probability. Considering uncertainties in the submarine’s depth estimation, a probabilistic hit model is developed to evaluate how detonation depth affects strike likelihood. Finally, the PSO algorithm is applied to identify the optimal detonation depth that maximizes the overall hit probability. Simulation results demonstrate that optimizing both deployment configuration and detonation parameters can significantly enhance the efficiency and success rate of anti-submarine operations.