Research on Heterogeneous Transport Capacity Coordination Modeling and Comprehensive Evaluation for Large-Scale Earth-Moon Material Transfer Systems

Abstract

Addressing the requirement to transport 100 million tons of materials for establishing a 100,000-person lunar settlement by 2050, this paper establishes a quantitative evaluation framework encompassing traditional rocket networks, pure space elevator systems, and hybrid transport solutions integrating both. The study first establishes a dynamic growth model based on technology learning curves, capturing the exponential enhancement of space elevator payload capacity over time. Simultaneously, for traditional rocket networks, a nonlinear decreasing model for per-launch costs with increasing reuse cycles is derived, incorporating reusability technology evolution trends. To achieve optimal allocation of transport resources during long-term construction phases, this study innovatively introduces a sigmoid function as a dynamic allocation weighting mechanism. This enables the system to fully leverage mature rocket technology during the initial construction phase while smoothly transitioning to the high-potential space elevator solution in the later stages. Quantitative evaluation using the Analytic Hierarchy Process (AHP) across two core dimensions—transportation time and comprehensive cost—reveals that the hybrid approach achieves a significantly superior composite score of 0.932 compared to pure rocket and pure elevator solutions. This study not only demonstrates the hybrid transport model's superiority in shortening project cycles and controlling long-term expenditures but also provides a scientific decision-making benchmark for strategic planning of large-scale deep-space logistics systems.