Forecasting Analysis of the Hungarian CPI Based on the Arima Model

Abstract

Since the twenty-first century, under the influence of economic system reform and economic globalization, Hungary's economic development has prospered, and the GDP index has increased significantly, however, while the country's economic development level has increased year by year, the consumer price index has also shown a year by year increasing trend. Consumer price index (CPI) is closely related to the quality of life, employment and economic stability. In this paper, the CPI in 2021 is taken as the base (100), and the data from 1990 to 2021 are statistically analyzed, and the ARIMA model is used to make time-series forecasts. Based on the ADF test, autocorrelation and partial autocorrelation plots for the determination of the series parameters, the ARIMA (1, 1, 0) model is obtained, and the final results are obtained for the ten data forecasts after 2021. The results show that the Hungarian consumer price index will still grow in the next ten years, but unlike the exponential growth after 2017, the growth rate slows down in the next ten years, indicating that the economic situation will stabilize in the future and price fluctuations will not be too high.