Research on Global Olive Oil Price Forecasting

Abstract

Nowadays, commodity price forecasting has become a popular topic. The study of olive oil prices can inform pricing strategies and price positioning of olive oil. How to analyze the range and magnitude of price changes, as well as how consumers are likely to react to changes in olive oil prices, are important factors that will influence the future price trend of olive oil. Therefore, it is crucial for companies to set prices correctly. Since the ARIMA model has high forecasting accuracy and fewer parameters, the model has been chosen for most similar forecasts and is also chosen as a forecasting tool in this paper. The forecast results show that international olive oil prices will remain wildly high in the future, but the rate of increase will slow down. Since the data of recent years are heavily affected by COVID-19, the outliers of recent years also need to be dealt with if more accurate forecasts are needed, which is an unresolved issue in this paper. This paper also attempts to make some policy recommendations based on previous studies to moderate the rapid increase in olive oil prices.