The Impact of Digital Transformation on International Trade Based on Big Data Analysis Models and Threshold Effects

Abstract

Currently, the world is experiencing a wave of digitalization, and the digital economy has become a significant engine for the growth of import and export trade. This paper deeply analyzes the impact of the digital economy on import and export trade from dimensions such as technology, society, and institutions. Based on panel data from 42 cities in China’s three major urban clusters (the Yangtze River Delta, the Pearl River Delta, and the Beijing-Tianjin-Hebei region) from 2011 to 2021, using the mediation effect model, threshold effect model, and K-means clustering algorithm, it examines the impact of digital economic development on import and export trade and its transmission mechanism. The research findings indicate that the development of the digital economy significantly promotes import and export trade; the level of technological innovation plays a mediating role in the relationship between digital economic development and import and export trade; there is a single threshold positive promotion effect of technological innovation level in the process of digital economic development affecting import and export trade; the degree of urbanization exhibits a single threshold effect in the process of digital economic development affecting import and export trade, specifically transitioning from inhibiting to promoting effects once the threshold value of urbanization is surpassed. Furthermore, there is a certain regional heterogeneity in the above conclusions among the three major urban clusters. The research results have certain guiding significance for optimizing the structure of foreign trade, promoting high-quality development of import and export trade, and achieving high-level economic and social development.