System Dynamics Simulation of China's Electric Vehicle Market Development Trends

Abstract

The global new energy vehicle industry is currently in a phase of rapid development, with the growth of China's new energy electric vehicle sector being dynamically regulated by various factors within the overall market. Consequently, this study considers the competitive relationship with traditional fuel vehicles and the policy and economic factors present in international trade. Utilizing system dynamics models and dynamic simulations based on graph theory, the research analyzes the future development trends of the overall automobile market and China's new energy electric vehicles. The results indicate that electric vehicles globally will have a disruptive impact on the traditional fuel vehicle market. In situations where China's new energy electric vehicles significantly challenge the traditional fuel vehicle market, the market share of electric vehicles is expected to grow at a high rate over the next 30 years, rapidly increasing from 0.4 to 0.87. Different governmental guidance measures can create up to a 17% difference in market share. In foreign markets, under the global context of 'carbon peaking' and other low-carbon initiatives, or in scenarios where Chinese electric vehicles have a competitive advantage, the impact on the development of China's new energy vehicle industry is relatively minor.