A Study on the Measurement of Real Estate Bubble Based on GSADF: A Case Study of Four Super First-tier Cities in China
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/hbem.v5i.5136Keywords:
Real Estate Bubble, GSADF, Super First-tier Cities.Abstract
The problem of high house prices is particularly prominent in super first-tier cities, and real estate bubbles are affecting the healthy development of the real estate industry. This paper applies the GSADF model to measure the year-on-year sales price indices of new commercial dwellings in four super first-tier cities in China, Beijing, Shanghai, Guangzhou, and Shenzhen, from 2011M01 to 2022M08, to examine the time points when their bubbles occur and burst. Results show that the bubbles in the four cities mainly appear in six time periods, and the maximum values of GSADF statistics all appear in 2013M03-2013M05, and the peak and frequency of the bubbles decrease significantly after 2018. Therefore, this paper suggests that we continue to adhere to the principle of "no speculation in housing"; improve the land use policy and build a multi-level housing supply system and continue to implement city-based regulation and control.
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