Analysis of regional financial risks in Shenzhen, China

Abstract

Financial risks are characterized by complexity, concealment, abruptness, infectivity and harmfulness. In the 40 years since the establishment of China's Special Economic Zone, Shenzhen's financial industry has become the third largest financial center on the mainland. At present, the financial industry has developed into one of the four pillar industries in Shenzhen. The significance of this paper is to explore and evaluate the regional financial risks in Shenzhen, and put forward targeted suggestions for Shenzhen's banking, securities and insurance, and real estate markets according to the quantitative results. Based on the annual data of Shenzhen from 2000 to 2020, entropy weight method and CRITIC method are used to determine the weight of grading indicators. This paper proposes three innovative scenarios using Holt Winters three exponential smoothing method to predict data. Finally, the risk scoring system is constructed according to the scenario analysis results, and optimization suggestions are put forward according to the early warning results.