Study on Whether Urban Shrinkage Inhibits the Upgrading of Urban Industrial Structure based on the Empirical Study of 287 Prefecture-level Cities in China

Abstract

As China's urbanization process enters the middle and later stages, the phenomenon of urban shrinkage is gradually spreading in some cities. It is of great significance for China's urban development to rationally view the phenomenon of urban shrinkage and clarify the effect and mechanism of urban shrinkage on the upgrading of urban industrial structure. In this paper, we analyze the spatial characteristics of urban shrinkage in China based on the census data and panel data of Chinese cities from 2010 to 2019. On the basis of sorting out the impact mechanism of urban shrinkage on industrial structure upgrading, we construct instrumental variables and intermediary effects models to empirically test the relationship between urban shrinkage and industrial structure upgrading. The results show that urban shrinkage has a significant restraining effect on the level of industrial structure sophistication, and the level of industrial structure sophistication will decrease by 0.126 when the degree of urban shrinkage increases by 1%, but the impact of urban shrinkage on the level of industrial structure rationalization is not obvious. The mechanism analysis shows that the industrial structure upgrading is inhibited by reducing the accumulation of human capital stock and reducing the ability of scientific and technological innovation. Further research shows that the negative effects of urban shrinkage on urban industrial structure are more prominent in those less developed areas, old industrial bases and resource-based cities. The findings provide new insights for Chinese cities to cope with the problem of shrinkage and achieve sustainable development.