The Impact of Extreme Temperatures on Grain Production in the Huaihe River Basin

Abstract

The Huaihe River Basin is an important major grain producing area in China, maintaining the stability of grain output is of great significance to food security. However, with global warming, the frequency of extreme temperature events has increased, and the frequent meteorological disasters have brought great challenges to the stable supply of food production. In this paper, the impact of extreme temperature on grain production in the Huaihe River Basin was analyzed by using the daily temperature and agricultural production related data of 28 prefecture-level cities in the Huaihe River Ecological Economic Belt from 2001 to 2020. The following conclusions are drawn: 1) The influence coefficient of extreme high temperature on grain production in the Huaihe River Basin is -0.021, extreme low temperature has no significant impact on food production. 2) The effects of extreme temperature on food production in different regions in the river basin were heterogeneous, but the overall impact was negative. The influence coefficients of extremely high temperature days on the eastern region and Midwest region were -0.035 and -0.052, respectively, while the influence coefficients of extremely low temperature days on the eastern region were -0.413. The results showed that the increase in the number of extremely high temperature days would reduce production in the eastern region andMidwest region of the basin, while the northern region was not significantly affected by extreme heat. The increase in the number of extremely low temperature days will reduce grain production in the eastern region, and the impact on the Midwest region and the northern region will not be significant. Based on the above conclusions, three suggestions are put forward to maintain the safety of food production in the Huaihe River Basin: 1) enhance the ability to detect climate change in the basin; 2) Protect the stability of grain cultivated land in the river basin; 3) Innovative breeding of climate-resilient food crop seeds.