Forecast and Analysis of National GDP in China Based on ARIMA Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/ajst.v3i2.2096Keywords:
GDP, Time series, ARIMA model.Abstract
Gross domestic product (GDP) is an important indicator to measure the economic situation and development level of a country or region, which is of great significance in promoting steady economic development. Therefore, this paper selects the national GDP data from 1978 to 2019, uses Eviews 9.0 software to build a model for the selected time series, and finally determines ARIMA (1, 1, 1) as the optimal model, and forecasts and analyzes the national GDP in 2020 and 2021. The prediction results show that the gap between the predicted GDP in 2020 and 2021 and the actual value is small. Therefore, ARIMA model can better reflect the development trend and short-term forecast of national GDP.
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References
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