Analysis of Climate Change Impacts on Spring Maize Yields in the Loess Plateau

Chenguang Ma; Na Lei; Fang Zhang; Lei Shi; Jing Zhang; Yilun Dai

doi:10.54097/vcfc6468

Authors

Chenguang Ma
Na Lei
Fang Zhang
Lei Shi
Jing Zhang
Yilun Dai

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/vcfc6468

Keywords:

Spring maize; APSIM model; Climate change.

Abstract

Using daily climate projection data from Agricultural Production Systems sIMulator (APSIM) and the Sixth International Coupled Model Comparison Program (cmip6) Scenario Model Comparison Program (ScenarioMIP), the impacts of climate change on maize yields in Yuzhong were assessed under two future social development pathways, namely, SSP126 (low greenhouse gas-emitting sustainable development) and SSP585 (high GHG-emitting conventional development) two future social development pathways, the impacts of climate change on maize yields in Gansu were assessed. It was found that under the baseline and SSP126、SSP585 climatic conditions, spring maize yield was 206 kg ha^-1 higher in the N200 treatment than in the N150 treatment, and 736 kg ha^-1 and 373 kg ha^-1 in the SSP126 and SSP585 scenarios, respectively, and that increasing N application could effectively increase yield. There were significant spatial and temporal differences in the effect of climate change on spring maize yield under the same N application level treatment, when the N application level was 150 kg ha^-1, compared with the baseline (1980~2014) regional spring maize annual average yield increased by 1335 kg ha^-1 (SSP126) and 516 kg ha^-1 (SSP585); when the N application level was 200 kg ha^-1 (SSP126) and 683 kg ha^-1 (SSP585); when the N application level was 200 kg ha^-1, the average annual spring maize yield increased by 1865 kg ha^-1 (SSP126) and 683 kg ha^-1 (SSP585) compared to the baseline region, and the regional climatic changes favored the production of spring maize, and the effect of the yield increase was higher in SSP126 than in the SSP585 climatic scenario.

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