Prediction of Recyclable Resource Potential Distribution in China's New Energy Vehicle Industry

Abstract

The rapid development of China's new energy vehicle (NEV) industry has led to a high demand for key raw materials in power batteries, with a continuous high dependence on imports, posing certain supply risks. As domestic NEVs gradually enter the retirement phase, recyclable resources have become crucial for China. Therefore, analyzing and predicting the potential distribution of recyclable resources in China's NEV industry can effectively support the capacity layout and optimization of the power battery cascade utilization and recycling industry. Research results show that in 2023, China's recyclable lithium, cobalt, and nickel metal resources were 65,000 tons, 12,000 tons, and 106,000 tons, respectively, mainly distributed in provinces such as Guangdong, Guangxi, Shandong, Henan, and Zhejiang. By 2035, China's recyclable lithium, cobalt, and nickel metal resources are expected to grow to 695,000 tons, 305,000 tons, and 2.49 million tons, respectively, with the distribution remaining largely consistent with 2023. It is recommended that provinces plan their recycling industries based on the distribution of NEV recyclable resources to avoid overcapacity or shortages. Enterprises can also plan production lines according to the distribution of key metal resources to ensure efficient utilization of capacity.