Analysis on Export Trade Potential of Agricultural Products between China and RCEP Member States

Based on Extended Trade Gravity Model

Abstract

With the deepening of economic globalization, regional economic cooperation has become a key driving force to promote global economic growth. The entry into force of RCEP marks the birth of the largest free trade agreement in the world, and the agricultural products in the region can achieve zero-tariff trade in the future, which will also bring great growth to China's agricultural export trade. Therefore, based on the data of China's agricultural exports to RCEP member countries from 2014 to 2023, this paper makes an in-depth analysis of the influencing factors and trade potential of China's agricultural exports by using the extended trade gravity model. The results show that the per capita GDP of China, the per capita GDP of other RCEP member countries, the added value of agriculture and the openness of foreign trade have a significant positive impact on China's agricultural export trade; The common border between RCEP member countries and China trade parties will also have a significant positive effect on agricultural export trade; However, the distance variable, the per capita arable land area of RCEP countries and liner shipping index have a significant negative effect on China's agricultural exports. In terms of export trade potential, except for Malaysia, the Philippines, Thailand and Myanmar, all other RCEP countries are of "great trade potential". It is necessary to combine the characteristics of each country and adjust measures to local conditions to improve China's agricultural export trade strategy and strengthen agricultural trade with RCEP member countries.