Characteristics of Spatial and Temporal Land Use Changes, Driving Factors and Development Trend Prediction: -- Taking the Three Northeastern Provinces as an Example

Cong Wang

doi:10.54097/1hd6kw45

Authors

Cong Wang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/1hd6kw45

Keywords:

PLUS Model, Three Northeastern Provinces, Markov Chain, Land Use, Future Prediction, Driving Mechanism

Abstract

Urbanization and economic development have reshaped the production and living needs of the population, making land-use planning and forecasting increasingly critical for national development. Currently, the issues related to land use in the three northeastern provinces of China remain inadequately defined. This study focuses on these provinces, investigating the spatial and temporal patterns of land-use change, the driving factors influencing land-use types, and future development trends. By analyzing data from the National Bureau of Statistics, the Chinese Academy of Sciences, and the Institute of Geography, among others, and applying the PLUS model, Markov chains, and ArcGIS spatial analysis techniques, the study yields the following conclusions: (i) The influence of different driving factors on the expansion of various types of land in the three northeastern provinces has obvious differences, among which the influence of GDP on construction land is particularly significant. (ii) Under the double influence of national strategy and the background of the times, the land use of the three northeastern provinces has been transformed, with arable land and residential land, construction land expanding in the central plains; and forests converting into the peripheral mountainous areas, especially in the northern forested areas with a particularly significant trend. (iii) The likelihood of conversion of different land-use types varies, with cropland and forest land in general not changing much. In contrast, the probability of conversion of grassland and other construction land is as high as 50%, and unutilized land is also subjected to a considerable degree of development. Only about 20% of urban and rural residential land is likely to change, but there is a clear trend of conversion between the two. (iv) Generally speaking, there will be little change in land use in the study area in the next 10 years. Under the influence of “returning farmland to the forest”, arable land will shrink in the Sanjiang Plain and Songnen Plain, and the area of ecological land will grow significantly; further population growth will trigger urbanization and residential migration in the suburbs, and the sustainable development of food, environment, and population will be realized step by step.

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