Measurement, Regional Differences, and Dynamic Evolution of Agricultural New-Quality Productive Forces

Huiling Si; Zhian Ren

doi:10.54097/71at0427

Authors

Huiling Si
Zhian Ren

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/71at0427

Keywords:

Agricultural New Quality Productive Forces, Vertical–Horizontal Differentiation Method, Dagum Gini Coefficient, Regional Disparities, Dynamic Evolution

Abstract

Agricultural new quality productive forces constitute a key driver for advancing high-quality agricultural development and represent an essential pathway toward realizing Chinese-style agricultural modernization. Based on a balanced panel dataset comprising 284 prefecture-level cities in China from 2008 to 2023, this study constructs a comprehensive evaluation framework of ANQPF from the dimensions of new laborers, new objects of labor, and new means of labor. A vertical–horizontal differentiation method, fixed-base efficacy coefficient method, and linear weighted aggregation method are applied to measure the level of ANQPF. Furthermore, Dagum Gini coefficient decomposition, kernel density estimation, traditional Markov chain, and spatial Markov chain models are employed to investigate regional disparities and dynamic evolution characteristics. The empirical results reveal the following: (1) The national average level of ANQPF shows a steady upward trend. Although the levels and contribution rates of new laborers, new objects of labor, and new means of labor all exhibit continuous growth, heterogeneity across dimensions remains. (2) The Dagum Gini coefficient indicates that overall disparities remain stable, while intra-regional, inter-regional, and transvariation density differences are all significant, with inter-regional disparities playing a dominant role. (3) Kernel density estimation shows that the national distribution exhibits a multi-modal and complex pattern, with evolving characteristics over time. The eastern region demonstrates leading and concentrated advantages, the central region shows stable improvement, the western region remains relatively lagging and dispersed, and the northeastern region displays a unique pattern with greater volatility. (4) Traditional and spatial Markov chains reveal system stability, club convergence, and transition rules shaped by spatial dependence. Based on the above findings, this study proposes some policy implications.

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