Regional Comparison of Progress Toward Carbon Emissions Peak in China

Yu Luo

doi:10.54097/hsdq2v42

Authors

Yu Luo

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/hsdq2v42

Keywords:

Carbon Emissions Peak, Regional Differences, Decoupling

Abstract

Accurately assessing the progress of carbon emissions peak actions at the national and regional levels is a crucial foundation for achieving China’s carbon emissions peak target before 2030. This study first examines the relationship between carbon emissions peak and carbon emissions decoupling, and establishes their correspondence numerically by employing the Tapio decoupling model. Second, using provincial panel data from 2000 to 2019, it investigates the progress of the carbon emissions peak in China overall and in the Eastern, Central, and Western regions. The study finds that at the national level, China’s overall CO₂ emissions have entered a near-peak plateau phase, where the growth rate of carbon emissions has significantly slowed and is much lower than GDP growth. However, an unstable rebound trend persists under the influence of macroeconomic policies. Regionally, the Eastern region has the most advanced progress toward the carbon emissions peak, followed by the Central region, with the Western region lagging. Moreover, the gaps among the three regions are gradually widening.

Downloads

Download data is not yet available.

References

[1] WRI. Mitigation goal standard [EB/OL]. World Resources Institute, [2025-9-4]. https://ghgprotocol.org/mitigation-goal-standard.

[2] WRI. Turning points: Trends in countries' reaching peak greenhouse gas emissions over time[EB/OL]. World Resources Institute, [2025-10-4]. https://www.wri.org/research/turning-points-trends-countries-reaching-peak-greenhouse-gas-emissions-over-time.

[3] C40. 27 Cities Have Reached Peak Greenhouse Gas Emissions Whilst Populations Increase and Economies[EB/OL]. C40, [2025-9-4]. https://www.c40.org/zh-CN/news/27-cities-have-reached-peak-greenhouse-gas-emissions-whilst-populations-increase-and-economies-grow/.

[4] UNEP. Emissions Gap Report 2018[EB/OL]. United Nations Environment Programme, [2025-9-4]. https://wedocs.unep. org/rest/api/core/bitstreams/e102b139-3b22-4b82-b117-41bb 5a4d26fc/content.

[5] Liu D, Xiao B. Can China achieve its carbon emission peaking? A scenario analysis based on STIRPAT and system dynamics model[J]. Ecological indicators, 2018, 93:647-657.

[6] Li L, Lei Y, He C, et al. Prediction on the peak of the CO2 emissions in china using the stirpat model[J]. Advances in Meteorology, 2016, 2016(1): 5213623.

[7] Fang K, Tang Y, Zhang Q, et al. Will China peak its energy-related carbon emissions by 2030? Lessons from 30 Chinese provinces[J]. Applied Energy, 2019, 255113852.

[8] Mi Z, Wei Y-M, Wang B, et al. Socioeconomic impact assessment of China’s CO2 emissions peak prior to 2030[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2017, 142:2227-2236.

[9] Su Y, Liu X, Ji J, et al. Role of economic structural change in the peaking of China's CO2 emissions: An input-output optimization model[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2021, 761143306.

[10] Zhang Y, Qi L, Lin X, et al. Synergistic effect of carbon ETS and carbon tax under China’s peak emission target: A dynamic CGE analysis[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2022, 825154076.

[11] Li H, Qin Q. Challenges for China’s carbon emissions peaking in 2030: A decomposition and decoupling analysis[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 207:857-865.

[12] Shi C. Decoupling analysis and peak prediction of carbon emission based on decoupling theory[J]. Sustainable Computing: Informatics and Systems, 2020, 28100424.

[13] Gong W, Wang C, Fan Z, et al. Drivers of the peaking and decoupling between CO2 emissions and economic growth around 2030 in china[J]. Environmental Science and Pollution Research, 2022, 29(3): 3864-3878.

[14] Xu G, Schwarz P, Yang H. Adjusting energy consumption structure to achieve China’s CO2 emissions peak[J]. Renewable and Sustainable Energy Reviews, 2020, 122109737.

[15] Yuan J, Xu Y, Hu Z, et al. Peak energy consumption and CO2 emissions in china[J]. Energy Policy, 2014, 68:508-523.

[16] Li F, Xu Z, Ma H. Can China achieve its CO2 emissions peak by 2030? [J]. Ecological indicators, 2018, 84:337-344.

[17] Zhang C, Su B, Zhou K, et al. Decomposition analysis of China’s CO2 emissions (2000–2016) and scenario analysis of its carbon intensity targets in 2020 and 2030[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 668:432-442.

[18] Chen X, Shuai C, Wu Y, et al. Analysis on the carbon emission peaks of china's industrial, building, transport, and agricultural sectors[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2020, 709135768.

[19] Ma X, Wang C, Dong B, et al. Carbon emissions from energy consumption in China: Its measurement and driving factors[J]. Science of the Total Environment, 2019, 6481411-1420.

[20] Tan X, Lai H, Gu B, et al. Carbon emission and abatement potential outlook in China's building sector through 2050[J]. Energy Policy, 2018, 118:429-439.

[21] Tapio P. Towards a theory of decoupling: Degrees of decoupling in the eu and the case of road traffic in Finland between 1970 and 2001[J]. Transport Policy, 2005, 12(2): 137-151.

[22] Xie P, Gao S, Sun F. An analysis of the decoupling relationship between CO2 emission in power industry and gdp in China based on lmdi method[J]. Journal of Cleaner Production, 2019, 211:598-606.

[23] Wu Y, Zhu Q, Zhong L, et al. Energy consumption in the transportation sectors in China and the united states: A longitudinal comparative study[J]. Structural Change and Economic Dynamics, 2019, 51:349-360.