Financial Pricing Mechanisms for Corporate Carbon Risks: Methodological Critique and Integration in Empirical Research Under Dual Carbon Goals

Abstract

Against the backdrop of China’s “dual carbon” goals—peaking carbon emissions by 2030 and achieving carbon neutrality by 2060—corporate carbon risk has become a systemic factor influencing financial asset pricing. This review systematically examines the methodological challenges in empirically pricing carbon risk within this context, focusing on three core issues: poor data reliability, oversimplified policy assumptions, and the limitations of linear pricing models. Specifically, corporate selective disclosure—such as omitting Scope 3 emissions and exploiting ESG rating discrepancies—severely distorts emission data. Moreover, regional carbon market fragmentation and supply-chain spillover effects complicate policy impact assessments, while behavioral biases among investors lead to anomalous pricing outcomes such as the U-shaped premium paradox. To address these challenges, this paper proposes an integrated framework incorporating data, modeling, and policy dimensions. It recommends employing emerging technologies like blockchain to improve data transparency, developing non-linear models that capture policy shocks and investor behaviors, and establishing a cross-regional risk monitoring mechanism. The study concludes that carbon risk pricing embodies dynamic interactions among policy, technology, and behavioral factors, and provides methodological insights tailored to transition economies like China. Future research should focus on data ethics, model adaptability, and quantifying cognitive biases in green investing.