Study of the Nonlinear Effects of Population Aging on Local Government Debt: -- Empirical Analysis based on Panel Threshold Regression Model

Yufan Zheng; Siya Cao; Lizhi Yin; Can Wang

doi:10.54097/jid.v3i1.8418

Authors

Yufan Zheng
Siya Cao
Lizhi Yin
Can Wang

DOI:

https://doi.org/10.54097/jid.v3i1.8418

Keywords:

Population Aging, Local Government Debt, Panel Threshold Regression Model

Abstract

Along with the transformation of economic stage and the evolution of population structure, the local government debt problem brought by deep aging is an important proposition facing China's high-quality economic development. Based on the realistic background that China's population aging continues to deepen and the scale of local debts expands rapidly, this thesis systematically compares the impact mechanism of population aging on local government debts. Based on the provincial panel data from 2007-2021, the dynamic effects between the two are analyzed in depth based on the panel threshold regression model; finally, corresponding policy recommendations are proposed based on the research results and the actual situation in China, in order to effectively cope with the impact of population aging on local government debt in China.

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