Prediction Of Global Temperature Based on ARIMA And GM Model
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.54097/hset.v67i.12056Keywords:
ARIMA, GM model, global temperature forecast.Abstract
Global temperatures have risen rapidly in recent decades .In order to find the rising trend of global temperature, this paper establishes ARIMA model and GM model to fit the past temperature changes and predict the future temperature trend. The results showed that the global average temperature will reach 23.55 °C by 2050. Then through the evaluation index SSE, it is judged that the ARIMA ( 0,1,2 ) model hasthe best prediction effect.
Downloads
References
Global temperature rise may be higher than previously predicted [ J]. Heilongjiang Science and Technology Information, 2012 (11) : 12-13.
QIAN Weihong. Regularity, cause and future forecast of global temperature change [ C] / /. Proceedings of the Subtropical Monsoon and Climate Change Branch of the 27th Annual Meeting of China Meteorological Society. [ Publisher unknown], 2010: 80-81.
Wang Yuanhao. Global temperature prediction analysis based on ARIMA model and LSTM neural network [ J]. Scientific and technological innovation, 2021 (35): 166-170.
Hou Huiqing. Global climate change prediction model based on BP neural network [ J]. Technology and innovation, 2021 (09): 10-11.DOI : 10.15913 / j.cnki.kjycx.2021.09.005.
Yuan Ming, Shen Jinshan, Zhang Yi, Yang Ruijia, Zhang Yunhui. Global temperature prediction based on GA-BP neural network [ J]. Journal of Zhengzhou Aeronautical Industry Management College, 2020,38 (06 ) : 67-75.DOI : 10.19327 / j.cnki.zuaxb.1007-9734.2020.06.007.
Ma Xia, Zhang Jinzhu, Li Can, Guo Zunguang. Application of ARIMA model teaching case design of R software [ J]. Fujian Computer, 2022,38 ( 11 ) : 113-117.DOI : 10.16707 / j.cnki.fjpc.2022.11.026.
Li Bingxiao, Zhang Shiwei, Zheng Shuyu, Zhao Zhifan. Research on hydropower power prediction based on multiple linear regression and ARIMA combination model [ J]. Scientific and technological innovation, 2022 ( 33 ) : 71-74.
Construction and numerical simulation of SVM-ARIMA model for CPI prediction [ J / OL]. Statistics and decision-making, 2022 ( 21 ) : 48-52 [ 2022-11-27 ].DOI : 10.13546 / j.cnki.tjyjc.2022.21.009.
Gu Yanchun, Lu Haiyan, Zhao Jinjin, Xu Jie, Shen Guanqiang. Improved GM ( 1,1 ) model based on chicken swarm optimization algorithm [ J ]. Information technology and informatization, 2022 ( 10 ) : 216-220.
Guo Yang. Prediction of Main Indicators of River Water Quality Based on GM (1,1 ) Model [ J ]. Agriculture and Technology, 2022, 42 (19 ) : 116-120.DOI : 10.19754 / j.nyyjs.20221015029.
Downloads
Published
Issue
Section
License
This work is licensed under a Creative Commons Attribution-NonCommercial 4.0 International License.
