Assessing Climate Sensitivity and Mechanisms in a One-Dimensional Climate Energy Balance Model

Abstract

Addressing the pressing concerns surrounding climate sensitivity, particularly within the context of Earth's changing climate, remains a pivotal endeavor. In this paper, the earth global temperature variation modeled by a one-dimensional climate energy balance model (EBM) is studied using a variance-based sensitivity analysis. The outcomes of this study offer a comprehensive analysis on each parameter that govern Earth's climate dynamics. Specifically, the analyses highlight that land albedo possesses the most substantial First-Order Sobol indices; the solar multiplier and the constant coefficient in the linearized Stefan-Boltzmann Law emerge as the second and third-largest contributor to Sobol indices, while the sensitivity of albedo of ice, temperature dependent coefficient of linearized Stefan-Boltzmann Law, and Transfer Coefficient remain insignificance. The analysis also suggests the non-negligible role of ice-albedo feedback and supports the hypothesis of the "Snowball Earth". This research holds significance as it uniquely addresses Earth's climate sensitivity using a one-dimensional Energy Balance Model, offering fundamental yet essential insights into the dynamics of earth's climate system, particularly its temperature variations.