Carbon Emission Scenario Projections Based on STIRPAT Modeling: Evidence from Anhui

Abstract

As a matter of fact, carbon emission is a hot topic in contemporary society. This paper focuses on the carbon emission problem in Anhui Province, and adopts the IPCC method to measure the industrial carbon emission and total carbon emission in each region of Anhui Province, and analyses the decoupling of GDP and carbon emission in each region of the province from 2011 to 2020 based on the Tapio decoupling model. In addition, this study constructs a prediction model for the trend of carbon emission in the industrial sector of Anhui Province by using the STIRPAT model, and sets up three different scenarios for the indicators of the size of the industrial economy, the industrial output value per capita, the energy structure, the energy intensity, and the intensity of the industrial sector's carbon emission in Anhui, including the energy saving, the baseline, and the aggressive scenarios. According to the analysis, weakly decoupled relationship between GDP and carbon emissions in various regions of Anhui Province. In addition, the peak carbon emissions are 459.27 million tons, 493.25 million tons, and 562.48 million tons in 2030, 2035, and 2040 in the three different scenarios, namely, energy conservation, baseline, and aggressive scenarios, respectively.