Recovery from the Pandemic: The Study of Fluctuations and Short-Term Forecasting in The Canadian Health System Workforce

Abstract

The healthcare industry is an area that should be meticulously planned to meet the needs of the population under any circumstances. Studying changes in the healthcare and social assistance workforce can provide direction and data support for these plans. However, at times, the factors influencing workforce changes are diverse and unpredictable. The grey system is a simple method used for handling incomplete data and conducting short-term forecasts. Its main advantages lie in its adaptability to small sample sizes and incomplete data, as well as its interpretability. Nearly all businesses were significantly impacted by the COVID-19 epidemic in 2020, but the healthcare industry was particularly heavily afflicted. By establishing a grey forecasting model based on data of the healthcare and social assistance industry workforce in Canada, this study aimed to simulate trends and predict future values of the industry’s labour force. The results indicate that the data has consistently grown at a relatively constant rate in the decade, with noticeable fluctuations in growth rate occurring during the COVID-19 pandemic. However, after 2021, the growth rate gradually returned to pre-pandemic levels.