Forecast of Housing Prices in Beijing and Analysis of Influencing Factors

Abstract

Real estate is an important part of China's real economy, and housing prices are one of the basic elements in the entire real estate market. This paper analyzes the housing price data of Beijing, China, and firstly uses a multiple linear regression model to determine whether the factors that have an important impact on China's housing prices also play an effect on Beijing's housing prices. And then this paper analyzes how much each factor has an impact on Beijing's housing prices. Additionally, the ARIMA model is used to predict the trend of housing prices in Beijing in the next 10 months according to the monthly data of the past 10 years. Finally, the change point analysis method is used to study the effect of the Corona Virus Disease 2019 (COVID-19) on housing prices in Beijing. It aims to understand the operating mechanism behind housing prices and give policymakers, investors and home buyers more suggestions and instruction.