Evaluate the Correlation Between Identified Social Issues and Ultra-low Fertility Rates in Hong Kong

Abstract

Hong Kong has witnessed a significant and continuous decline in its total fertility rate (TFR) over the past few decades, hitting an ultra-low level. This article investigates various social issues that would probably contribute to this decline as previous studies suggest, including the women’s role incongruence, the extremely heavy financial burden, and the limited scope of government policies in Hong Kong society. The persistence of such low TFR in societies would deteriorate aging problems, increase the old-age dependency ratio, and shrink the labor force. These issues are thereby posing significant challenges to Hong Kong’s economic and political sustainability. Hence, it is necessary for policymakers to introduce effective policies to improve TFR by figuring out where the problem derives. To comprehensively comprehend the correlation between ultra-low TFR and identified social issues, this research employs two statistical models which are multiple linear regression and decision tree analysis. The results reveal a strong correlation between low TFR and some identified social problems, while also elucidating the coefficient of each factor. Simultaneously, the findings contradict some previous hypotheses claimed by scholars.