Application of Bayesian Methods to Epidemics

Abstract

This template explains and demonstrates how to use Bayesian methods to estimate the epidemics. And this study will use the case COVID-19 in United State as an example. In this days, infectious diseases have had a huge impact on human society since ancient times. And in this article will find out how to use the parameter of the basic reproduction number, infection rate and recovery rate of the epidemics combined with Bayesian method and SIR model to estimate a linear regression and to figure out the connection in epidemics. This study will specifically explore how parameters estimated by Bayesian methods can be used to predict the spread trend and potential impact of the disease. This includes using Bayesian methods to update model parameters to adapt to new epidemic data, and how model predictions can be used to guide public health decisions and disease control measures. Moreover, helping people to predict the spread of the disease, and assess the potential scale of the disease outbreak and formulae effective intervention measure.