Quantifying Momentum in Tennis: A Case Study of the 2023 Wimbledon Gentlemen’s Final

Abstract

In sports competitions, especially in famous sports like tennis, momentum has a very significant impact on the outcome of the competition. In the era of big data, research can predict the momentum changes in the game based on historical data, thereby providing players and coaches with reasonable strategies. This analysis can increase the player's winning rate. Explore the presence and changes of momentum in the game through a case study of the 2023 Wimbledon men's singles final. The research selected key moments in the game, including serve games, break games, and errors, to capture momentum through a series of quantifiable indicators, and applied random forest, support vector machine, and multi-layer perception models. Their accuracy rates are 0.6691, 0.6643, and 0.6479 respectively. The research aimed to predict scoring results and evaluate player performance. The research provides coaches and players with a new tool to quantify momentum in tennis matches, helping to better understand match flow, develop tactics, and improve match performance.