Study on Illegal Trade in Wildlife Based on AHP and ARMI-Intervention-SVR Series Models

Abstract

This study looks at the environmental impact of the illegal trade in the world's fourth largest wildlife and aims to combat it. By setting two project objectives, namely strengthening law enforcement and enhancing community economic capacity, with the government as the focus client. In the data processing stage, the government of Vietnam was identified as the target client by assigning weights using the Analytical Hierarchy Processing (AHP) and entropy weighting methods and combining the weights through the Minimum Information Entropy (MIE) and Lagrange Multiplier (LM) methods. In terms of project impact quantification, an intervention analysis model is introduced to establish the ARMI-Intervention-SVR series of models, and the PSO algorithm is used to find the best fitting parameters of the SVR model to improve the model performance. After combining the intervention prediction models, it was concluded that the impact of the Vietnam project on the five-year transaction volume of illegal wildlife trade was 31.22 per cent, 28.87 per cent, 18.25 per cent, 13.77 per cent and 12.31 per cent, respectively. These results provide an important reference for effectively combating illegal wildlife trade and are of practical significance.